Even brighter days are forward for REITs.
That is in keeping with Brad Thomas, a Looking for Alpha analyst since 2010 who additionally helps lead the iREIT®+HOYA Capital service. He factors to 2 key gadgets that can propel REITs increased in 2025: Decrease rates of interest and the potential for a extra accommodating coverage surroundings from the Trump administration.
As we speak, most REITs are well-positioned to develop their companies (and develop earnings and dividends). Scale and price of capital benefits have arrange the best-managed REITs for long-term success, Thomas says.
Thomas shares his greater market outlook on this Q&A Outlook piece:
Looking for Alpha: 2024 has been a difficult 12 months for REITs. What do you see for 2025?
Brad Thomas: On steadiness, 2024 has not been that dangerous for U.S. REITs as they’ve navigated increased rates of interest whereas sustaining sound operational efficiency, robust steadiness sheets, and good entry to capital.
Once you evaluate the primary three quarters of 2024 to the identical interval in 2023, mixture internet working earnings (‘NOI’) and dividends paid are (“both”) greater than 3% increased.
Additionally, by Nov. 30, 2024, whole returns for the FTSE Nareit All Fairness REIT Index have been 14%, properly above the 25-year common of practically 10%. Whereas REITs lagged the broader inventory market, they did considerably outperform non-public actual property (by greater than 17 share factors, measured by the NCREIF ODCE index).
Just lately, the Federal Reserve lowered its key rate of interest by 1 / 4 share level (from 4.5% to 4.25%), the third consecutive discount, and this time the Fed was extra cautionary relating to further cuts in coming years.
CNBC
The Fed indicated that it’ll most likely decrease twice in 2025, in keeping with the “dot plot” matrix of particular person members’ future charge expectations. The principle query now could be whether or not inflation holds regular (above its goal of two%) and whether or not financial development is stable.
Now that we all know Donald Trump would be the president for the subsequent 4 years, there are lingering questions relating to fiscal debt, tariffs, immigration, regulation, and company taxes.
Simply as we noticed in 2024, sure property sectors will carry out higher than others, and getting the sectors proper would be the key to success.
For instance, in 2024 the top-performing sectors have been information facilities (+29%), malls (+28%), billboards (+27%), healthcare (+26%), workplace (26%), and residences (21%).
iREIT + HOYA
Alternatively, different property sectors, similar to industrial (-16%), timber (-16%), cell towers (-14%), hashish (-13.5%), and farmland (-10%), underperformed.
I discover it attention-grabbing to see that just one leg of the so-called “tech trifecta” stool (information facilities) carried out properly in 2024. Had you been equal-weight information facilities (+29%), cell towers (-14%) and industrial (-16%) you’ll have seen returns of -.33%.
Throughout the retail sector, for those who had owned equal-weight malls (+28%), purchasing facilities (17.9%) and internet lease (.4%) you’ll have seen returns of 15.5%.
The purpose is that it’s vital to know every sub-sector as a result of every class has its distinctive development drivers.
Broadly talking, I wish to personal REITs with probably the most engaging earnings visibility and development prospects – ones that provide practical catalysts. I search for sectors that provide robust demand and better occupancy ranges with “wide moat” pricing energy.
Looking for Alpha: As you identified, not all REITs are equal, as sure property sectors have carried out higher than others throughout the previous 12 months. What are probably the most engaging sectors for 2025?
Brad Thomas: First off, let me play the contrarian card, which is the web lease sector (.4% YTD).
As you recognize, I used to be a developer for a lot of nationwide manufacturers similar to Advance Auto Components (AAP), Greenback Normal (DG), and The Sherwin-Williams (SHW) for greater than twenty years, so I do know this internet lease enterprise mannequin extraordinarily properly.
Once I was beginning out in enterprise (the 90s), there have been simply three internet lease REITs: Realty Revenue (O), NNN REIT (NNN) and W. P. Carey (WPC). As we speak there are 21 internet lease REITs in all sizes and styles, representing a consolidated market capitalization of $140 billion.
iREIT + HOYA
Over the past decade, the web lease sector has expanded past conventional quick meals, informal eating, and automobile restore providers right into a wider vary of classes similar to casinos, motels, amusement parks, farming, information facilities, floor leases, and extra.
What makes this sector so engaging, for my part, is the resilient and predictable earnings that these internet lease REITs generate. Two REITs – Realty Revenue and NNN REIT are Dividend Aristocrats.
Selecting winners from this record of 21 REITs might be overwhelming, however I imagine the businesses with scale and price of capital benefits will come out forward.
Clearly, issues over increased charges are a danger in 2025 due to decrease funding spreads, which weigh on exterior development drivers.
Nonetheless, acquisition volumes in 2024 usually exceeded expectations, and it seems there’s a wholesome acquisition pipeline going into 2025 that might drive outperformance.
Consensus Development (AFFO/Share) Estimates 
iREIT + HOYA
I put collectively a chart above, highlighting consensus development estimates for 2025 and 2026.
Don’t be fooled by Gladstone Business (GOOD), which minimize the dividend by 20% in early 2023, and nonetheless has not returned to 2021 earnings of $1.60 per share ($.95 in 2024).
Eradicating that outlier, you may see that Important Properties Realty Belief (EPRT) has the most effective development prospects going into the brand new 12 months (+9%) adopted by Agree Realty (+5%).
Additionally, elevated charges might drive extra sale-leasebacks, given excessive rates of interest, as sale-leasebacks might look extra engaging as a financing car for firms, and consequently, this may occasionally drive extra sale-leaseback volumes.
Whereas valuations might seem compelling for GOOD and International Internet Lease (GNL), I’d suggest shopping for shares within the consolidators similar to Realty Revenue, Agree Realty (ADC), Important Properties or VICI Properties (VICI). All 4 are within the Purchase Zone and Realty Revenue stays probably the most discounted of the bunch (a Sturdy Purchase).
Given the engaging valuations throughout the internet lease sector, I like to recommend proudly owning a couple of of those REITs, iREIT® + HOYA is chubby the sector.
One other promising class in 2025 is retail, particularly purchasing facilities.
As soon as once more, as a shopping mall developer in my prior profession, I can attest to the opportunistic provide image through which area is now extremely constrained (attributable to elevated charges related to new building). I favor sectors with enhanced pricing energy (in search of “wide moats”) as tenants conform to extra landlord-favorable lease phrases.
iREIT + HOYA
As you may see, SITE Facilities (SITC) and Acadia Realty (AKR) had a terrific 12 months – each returning greater than 45% year-to-date. Additionally, Retail Alternative Investments Corp. (ROIC) is being acquired by Blackstone (BX) and is awaiting shareholder approval. As you may see under, consensus development estimates for the purchasing middle sector are stable.
Consensus Development (AFFO/Share) Estimates 
iREIT + HOYA
Do not forget that Web site Facilities spun out its internet lease properties to kind Curbline Properties (CURB), a brand new internet lease REIT, which is the explanation AFFO is predicted to say no.
In the meantime, Whitestone REIT (WSR) is predicted to develop earnings by 19% in 2025. Nonetheless, shares are a bit wealthy right now at over 19x P/AFFO. I like Kite Realty Group Belief (KRG) too, however I’d additionally wait on a pullback.
Federal Realty Funding Belief (FRT) – a Dividend King – and Regency Facilities (REG) are probably the most engaging to me, each buying and selling at reductions to regular valuation ranges.
It’s additionally value noting that Tanger (SKT) has seen an unimaginable run over the previous couple of years. I credit score administration for its disciplined capital markets execution and for having the foresight to enter the neighborhood middle sector (from its core outlet middle heritage).
I’d most undoubtedly anticipate a pullback with Tanger as shares are buying and selling at round 20x.
I like to recommend overweighting purchasing facilities.
I additionally just like the healthcare sector that is well-positioned to proceed to experience the so-called “silver tsunami” (aka ageing inhabitants).
Throughout the healthcare sector, acquisition volumes have been forward of expectations (in 2024) and that momentum ought to proceed in 2025. Throughout the healthcare subsectors, I like expert nursing (tailwind given wholesome funding spreads) and senior housing in addition to life science.
Medical workplace constructing REITs haven’t carried out as properly, given the modest development and fewer stellar pricing energy.
iREIT + HOYA
Prime performers within the healthcare REIT sector year-to-date embody Strawberry Fields REIT (STRW), Welltower (WELL), Omega Healthcare (OHI), and Sabra Well being Care REIT (SBRA).
Underperformers embody Neighborhood Healthcare Belief (CHCT), International Medical REIT (GMRE), Alexandria Actual Property Equities (ARE), and Medical Properties Belief (MPW).
Consensus Development (AFFO/Share) Estimates 
iREIT + HOYA
As you may see, Strawberry, Welltower, CareTrust REIT (CTRE), and Ventas (VTR) all display screen robust primarily based on their consensus development estimates. Nonetheless, they’re all comparatively costly right now – though they’re transferring nearer to our purchase zone.
Healthpeak Properties (DOC) is likely one of the most compelling healthcare buys for my part, given much less lease rollover (in contrast with friends) and a robust steadiness sheet. I like to recommend chubby healthcare (excluding hospitals).
One remaining sector that I’m extraordinarily bullish on is information facilities.
I not too long ago wrote an article on Digital Realty Belief (DLR) explaining how I made a decision to trim shares attributable to lofty valuations. Nonetheless, as I discussed within the article, I redeployed capital again into American Tower (AMT), Prologis (PLD) and Realty Revenue (O) – all REITs with information middle publicity.
Additionally, Iron Mountain (IRM) has been a gem to personal popping out of COVID-19, returning over 333% after my Sturdy Purchase suggestion.
Looking for Alpha
It’s apparent there’s extraordinary demand for AI-related income, and I count on to see comparable basic drivers to help information middle fundamentals in 2025.
I don’t see any slowdown, as development demand for each conventional information middle functions and generative AI functions stays extremely robust and is poised to speed up.
I’ll additionally contact on towers, a sector that has slumped in 2024. As AT&T (T), T-Cellular US (TMUS), and Verizon Communications (VZ) speed up 5G deployments, they’ll proceed to produce the tower REITs with new provides. Additionally, falling rates of interest ought to ease refinancing dangers and speed up AFFO.
iREIT + HOYA
As I stated, I’m extra bullish on information facilities and nonetheless maintain a wholesome stake in each Digital Realty and Iron Mountain (IRM). I additionally personal America Tower (AMT) and a speculative stake in Crown Fortress (CCI).
As you may see under, primarily based on analyst consensus development, information facilities are mission-critical belongings that ought to drive returns in 2025 and past. I’m sustaining an chubby allocation to Knowledge Facilities, and I’m equalweight on cell towers.
Consensus Development (AFFO/Share) Estimates 
iREIT + HOYA
Looking for Alpha: I see that you simply didn’t embody Industrial REITs. Is there a purpose?
Brad Thomas: I like (and personal) industrial REITs and as I stated earlier, I think about the sector a part of the so-called “tech trifecta.” The rationale I’m a bit extra cautious going into 2025 is because of a leveling off in demand and uncertainty primarily due to potential tariff impacts.
That being stated, I imagine that demand will enhance in 2025, and new leasing ought to choose up. I’m extraordinarily bullish relating to President Trump’s “people and policies” and I view the prospect of company tax cuts and deregulation as jet gasoline for the sector.
I think that onshoring/nearshoring will speed up as Trump’s tariff insurance policies will create extra demand for area alongside commerce routes close to Mexico. Actually, I predict a producing increase possible I’ve by no means seen in my lifetime.
And talking of a increase in building, I see The Division of Authorities Effectivity (‘DOGE’) as a catalyst that can unlock super worth throughout nearly each property sector.
As I stated, I used to be as soon as a developer (for greater than 20 years) and I do know first-hand the inefficiencies associated to zoning, allowing, and building. I feel Elon Musk and his workforce will pace up the timeline for brand new building, which is able to make it a lot simpler to open new initiatives and ship a giant increase to employees throughout all spectrums.
One of many first anticipated actions associated to return-to-office (“RTO”) is 5 days per week for all civil servants. I see this being an enormous increase for U.S. cities like D.C. This goes with out saying, however I’m additionally bullish on sure Sunbelt workplace REITs like Highwoods Properties (HIW). I’m equalweight Industrial and Sunbelt Workplace.
iREIT + HOYA
Looking for Alpha: Are there another property sectors you wish to talk about?
Brad Thomas: Sure, I just like the condo sector given the vast hole between the price of homeownership vs. the price of renting. The price of homeownership has elevated meaningfully during the last a number of years primarily due to rising mortgage charges. Additionally, insurance coverage and tax prices have elevated.
Being primarily based in South Carolina and South Florida, I just like the sunbelt markets and in Q3 2024 we noticed the brand new deliveries have peaked, which is favorable for landlords like Mid-America House Communities (MAA) and Camden Property Belief (CPT).
iREIT + HOYA
I’m not as bullish on the self-storage sector as fundamentals have slowed down. When and if the housing market picks up, I’d be extra within the sector. As demand picks up, so will my curiosity within the sector.
I’m equalweight Residences and underweight self-storage.
Consensus Development (AFFO/Share) Estimates 
iREIT + HOYA
There are different area of interest sectors like hashish, farming, timber, manufactured housing, motels, and billboards. These might be thrilling classes, however I desire to take care of speculative publicity in these given their volatility.
Looking for Alpha: Brad, thanks for this overview. There’s tons of perception that you simply shared. Do you’ve any closing ideas?
Brad Thomas:
For 2025 I’m recommending a barbell strategy between high quality and worth. As I stated earlier, I imagine that sector efficiency is crucial for designing the right REIT blueprint and I’d chubby the next sectors:
Internet lease Buying facilities Healthcare Knowledge facilities
Then I’d Equal Weight these sectors:
Cell towers Industrial Sunbelt workplace Sunbelt residences
Then Below Weight these classes:
Self-storage Manufactured housing
I’d additionally think about sustaining some publicity to most popular shares or maybe a preferred-focused ETF like InfraCap REIT Most popular ETF (PFFR) which now yields 7.7%.
Given the chance set throughout the fairness REIT sector, I’d not suggest mortgage REITs except you’ve the danger urge for food for yield enhancement names like Ladder Capital (LADR) or Arbor Realty Belief (ABR).
Lastly, given REIT valuations going into 2025 I imagine REITs might ship significant returns of 15% to 25%.
For sure, the largest catalyst for REITs shall be falling rates of interest that can stimulate demand, particularly the extra rate-sensitive internet lease sector. I like to recommend specializing in REITs with robust steadiness sheets.
For the big half, I count on President Trump’s insurance policies to be very optimistic for REITs and I view probably the most delicate sectors as these with the best publicity to tax cuts and deregulation, tariffs, labor-intensive employees and federal regulation.
I recognize your permitting me to supply my 2025 forecast, and I want all readers the perfect.
Comfortable Holidays and Comfortable SWAN Investing!
IRET
Creator’s be aware: Brad Thomas is a Wall Road author, which suggests he isn’t at all times proper together with his predictions or suggestions. Since that additionally applies to his grammar, please excuse any typos you might discover. Additionally, this text is free: Written and distributed solely to help in analysis whereas offering a discussion board for second-level considering.
Editor’s Word: This text discusses a number of securities that don’t commerce on a significant U.S. change. Please pay attention to the dangers related to these shares.
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