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Buyers,
In 2024, Deep Sail Capital Companions (the “Fund”) returned 38.1% web of charges whereas averaging 86% web lengthy publicity. Within the fourth quarter of 2024, the fund returned 11.8% web of charges. Please seek the advice of your particular person capital account statements in your particular person web returns.
Within the fourth quarter, the fund outperformed our benchmarks, the Russell 2000 index (RTY) and the Russell Mid-Cap Development index. For the total 12 months 2024, the fund outperformed our benchmarks by 26% and 10%, respectively. The lengthy portfolio drove the outcomes for the quarter, with a number of high quality and microcap portfolio corporations performing effectively. For the second quarter in a row, Kraken Robotics (OTCQB:KRKNF) was the fund’s prime contributor, as pleasure about the way forward for their battery and sensor enterprise continues to develop. The quick portfolio generated a destructive return for the fund in This autumn as we noticed an enormous bubble develop in low-quality speculative shares (extra on this under).
Market Commentary – The Quantum AI Bubble
The 12 months 2024 concluded with the emergence of a brand new speculative bubble centered on AI and quantum computing. This bubble has a number of intriguing dimensions. Notably, the quantum computing frenzy gained momentum following Google’s (GOOG,GOOGL) announcement of its new Willow quantum chip on December tenth. Within the wake of this announcement, a wave of extraordinary inventory actions unfolded, with shares of corporations associated to quantum computing—and even these whose names contained phrases like “quantum” or “atom”—hovering dramatically. For example, Quantum Company (QMCO), an organization totally unrelated to quantum computing, has surged 170% since December tenth. Based on its SEC filings, the corporate makes a speciality of “ storing and managing digital video and other forms of unstructured data,” underscoring the disconnect between its enterprise mannequin and the quantum computing narrative driving its inventory efficiency.
The second key facet of this {industry} bubble is its disproportionate deal with lower-quality corporations inside the quantum computing and AI sectors, somewhat than established leaders within the sector. Excessive-quality AI gamers comparable to Nvidia (NVDA), META, and Arista Networks (ANET) have been overshadowed because the November election by a retail-driven frenzy surrounding speculative, low-quality, and even doubtful entities. This surge in curiosity has centered on quantum computing and AI corporations with minimal revenues, fueled by heightened retail enthusiasm for a perceived quantum breakthrough.
This dynamic exemplifies what could be categorised as an “Industry Bubble.” Traditionally, such bubbles have provided a few of the most engaging short-selling alternatives in monetary markets. Nevertheless, capitalizing on these alternatives requires persistence, as bubbles typically take time to run their full course.
The inventory market has witnessed a number of industry-specific bubbles through the years, pushed by hype, hypothesis, and overly optimistic development projections, typically in corporations with new expertise or getting into a brand new market. The hashish sector skilled a surge round 2018- 2019 as legalization efforts expanded, however many corporations confronted profitability challenges and vital capital funding necessities, resulting in sharp declines. Equally, the electrical car growth in 2021 noticed shares like Rivian (RIVN) and Lucid (LCID) skyrocket as traders wager closely on the transition to inexperienced vitality and authorities EV incentives, although nearly all these corporations couldn’t maintain the momentum, and several other of them are actually bankrupt.
Inside these industry-specific bubbles, corporations can typically be divided into two classes: official enterprises with actual expertise that, regardless of being wildly overvalued, are prone to endure, and impostor corporations making an attempt to capitalize on the thrill however with little probability of survival as soon as the bubble subsides. For instance, in the course of the EV bubble, Rivian stood out as a official firm, supported by a partnership with Volvo (OTCPK:VOLAF), an modern “skateboard” platform enabling the manufacturing of a number of car fashions, and a management workforce composed of seasoned expertise and automotive executives. In distinction, Lordstown Motors exemplified an impostor firm. Its CEO, Steve Burns, had a historical past of inventory promotion, restricted experience in EV expertise, and no vital proprietary expertise.
Lordstown was ultimately uncovered for misstating pre-orders to the monetary neighborhood, stemming from distinctive quick analysis carried out by Hindenburg Analysis (RIP).
Whereas we imagine that AI is within the early innings of a large wave of funding, however the corporations that have gotten caught up on this bubble are deliberately the bottom high quality corporations with the bottom floats, highest quick curiosity, and most promotional administration groups. These imposter corporations are particularly enticing to quick time period speculators attributable to their low floats relative to the thrill behind the {industry}.
The quantum portion of this {industry} bubble seems to have already reached a possible peak on January eighth with the feedback of Nvidia CEO Jensen Wong. Throughout a Q&A panel at CES, Jenson mentioned, “ Someday we’ll have very useful quantum computers. We’re probably five or six orders of magnitudes away, 15 years for useful quantum computers and that would be on the early side. 30 years is probably on the late side.” This pessimistic view could be very a lot the identical view as many individuals conversant in quantum computing. The expertise remains to be very removed from being commercially viable, and even when it’s obtainable, it can have a really slim utility round factorization, cryptography, and optimization algorithms. The day after these feedback, most shares inside the bubble declined by over 40%, together with Quantum Corp. (QCMO), Quantum Computing (QUBT), IonQ (IONQ), and D-Wave Quantum (QBTS), all of which the fund was quick.
Business bubbles current vital alternatives for our quick portfolio, as they persistently drive a number of shares to irrationally excessive valuations. This dynamic allows us to diversify idiosyncratic threat by concentrating on a broad mixture of each official corporations and impostor corporations inside the bubble. With current developments—comparable to Jensen’s feedback—indicating that this explicit bubble might have already begun to deflate, we imagine there stays appreciable alternative to quick these corporations, strategically utilizing worth surges as entry factors and subsequent declines as exit factors. As with earlier bubbles, we anticipate that the method of worth normalization will take time, doubtless six months to a 12 months, for valuations to totally revert to their prior ranges.
Lengthy Portfolio Abstract 
Within the fourth quarter, the lengthy portfolio outperformed each of our benchmarks, the Russell 2000 Index and the Russell Midcap Development Index by a major margin. 12 months up to now, the lengthy portfolio outperformed all of our benchmarks on each a web and gross foundation. The very best-performing place within the quarter was once more Kraken Robotics, which I highlighted in our Q2 investor letter. Moreover, Rocket Labs USA (RKLB) and TSS Inc (TSSI) had been up 161% and 66% in This autumn.
Rocket Labs is an thrilling founder-led area, rocket, and satellite tv for pc firm that we imagine has a multi-decade development path forward of it as funding in area growth expands. TSSI is a strategic companion for DELL that has a major alternative round knowledge middle integration, particularly within the liquid-cooled knowledge facilities.
In This autumn, the fund closed 4 positions and opened six new positions. The brand new positions in This autumn included e.l.f. Magnificence (ELF), a high-growth, digitally-savvy cosmetics firm and Vertiv (VRT) a world chief in designing, manufacturing, and servicing important digital infrastructure options that may considerably profit from the approaching Blackwell/Grace Nvidia improve cycle.
Present Place: Shelly Group Replace
We initially wrote up Shelly Group in our 2024 1Q investor letter. Since our preliminary funding pitch in early 2024, we’ve solely gained extra confidence within the enterprise, the management, and the technique. Alone with our rising confidence within the enterprise, the corporate has hit main milestones together with, uplisting to Frankfurt XTRA trade (April 2024), held their first Capital Markets Day (November 2024), transformed the corporate’s authorized construction to a European Firm or “SE” (December 2024) and continued to develop the enterprise at +40%. Many of those actions make the corporate extra enticing to western traders because of the enhance regulatory and authorized help. The present valuation can be 25% under (16x NTM EBITDA vs 21x NTM EBITDA) what the valuation was on the time of our earlier writeup.
Alongside continued income development within the 40-50% YoY for the final three quarters, the corporate has rolled out a number of new merchandise, and laid out a strategic plan to drive their enterprise over the following 5 to 10 years. Shelly held a Capital Markets day on November fifth through which they shared an in-depth strategic imaginative and prescient of their dwelling automation units and software program enterprise. ( Slides Right here from the Capital Market Day).
Up to date Imaginative and prescient and Technique
Shelly Group’s new enterprise technique represents a calculated push to solidify its place as a pacesetter within the good dwelling market whereas increasing into adjoining alternatives like dwelling safety and industrial / industrial monitoring. Shelly is increasing their enterprise from being solely a tool producer to turning into an built-in good dwelling platform with software program income streams. This evolution is backed by years of sturdy technological innovation, strong buyer engagement, and strategic market growth efforts to develop outdoors of their core markets in Europe. The group’s dedication to addressing client wants with scalable, environment friendly, and eco-friendly options aligns completely with broader tendencies favoring sustainability and automation.
On the core of Shelly’s technique is the event of their software program choices that pair effectively with their units and add worth to the ecosystem. This built-in ecosystem accessible by way of app or in house is designed to supply seamless administration of good dwelling functionalities, together with vitality optimization, predictive upkeep, and superior safety. The corporate is leveraging its proprietary knowledge lake and cloud options to create a basis for recurring revenues by excessive margin subscription-based companies. With a deal with community-driven innovation (Shelly has a loyal base on-line of automation fanatics), Shelly’s merchandise are formed by consumer suggestions, enhancing buyer loyalty and accelerating market adoption.
The Shelly ecosystem brings to the typical client a really good dwelling interface that many have dreamed attainable for many years, however solely extraordinarily costly high-end programs would enable. The Shelly app turns into your good dashboard to managing the whole lot from when lights are on to the peak of your shades.
Shelly App Dwelling Dashboard
Supply: Shelly Company Web site
Development Drivers
Shelly has a number of levers that it’s working to proceed its extraordinarily quick income development path (+40% since 2022). Geographic growth can be a major driver of Shelly’s development within the subsequent few years. The corporate is doubling down on decentralizing its gross sales operations to reinforce regional engagement and enhance buyer experiences. New hires in key markets, together with the Nordics and the USA, are anticipated to spice up native gross sales and deepen relationships with distributors and resellers. Over 50% of Shelly’s revenues at present come from DACH nations (Germany, Austria, and Switzerland), however long run they imagine the US will wildly outpace DACH nations.
New {hardware} product launches have vital greenspace inside dwelling automation units. Shelly has main product expansions coming in cameras, good locks (by the LOQED acquisition in July 2024), and clever sensors. Shelly at present gives 92 {hardware} product SKUs as of Q3 2024, which is closely weighted to vitality and lighting administration units.
They count on so as to add each new units in new and present classes in addition to providing extra sequence of Skilled targeted units which can be targeted on the upper finish skilled set up market. I count on the corporate to considerably develop their choices at shortly till they fill out their dwelling automation machine providing.
Shelly’s development and margin growth can be considerably impacted by the push into software program verticals that sit alongside their units which full the ecosystem. Whereas software program could be very small piece of Shelly’s present income, over the following 5 years it can develop to be a major income stream. Software program choices will embody Shelly X Software program (a no code software program platform for growing and managing their units), cloud administration & knowledge lake, vitality administration options, and the Shelly app. These software program choices can be monetized by a mixture of subscription income and utilization charges.
Shelly Group’s conventional prospects have been DIY-centric, because of the low price and excessive flexibility of their units. The corporate is shifting so as to add a spotlight to skilled installer market. By increasing into the skilled dwelling installer market and the economic IoT sector, Shelly is tapping into new income streams and broadening its buyer base. This diversification positions the corporate to leverage the rising demand for built-in good constructing options. The introduction of the Shelly Professional and Plus sequence, designed to cater to each skilled installers and DIY owners, highlights this method by providing modern options that meet various buyer wants.
On prime of their foremost development drivers that I highlighted, their highway to 2030 Imaginative and prescient consists of AI, predictive upkeep, and superior vitality administration options as sources of extra development. If Shelly executes on even 50% of their ambitions the corporate can be 5x bigger in 2030.
Supply: Shelly Group Capital Markets Day Presentation
Quick Portfolio Abstract 
Throughout This autumn the quick portfolio efficiency was materially impacted by the Quantum and AI {industry} bubble that I described above. Solely 40% of our shorts generated a optimistic contribution in This autumn, considerably under our common for 2024. I imagine the chance set for shorts on the finish of 2024 was the perfect because the 2022 Covid bubble. This has already been realized in January of 2025 with the huge implosion within the Quantum and AI bubble, which the fund has materially benefited. I imagine we’ll see some turbulence in US markets in 2025, that can be pushed by authorities cutbacks in spending and will increase to inflation. Thus, I’ve been slowly growing our quick publicity in 2025 and patiently await any indicators that the excessive valuations within the inventory market to be pressured downward with financial realities.
Prime Holdings & Present Publicity 
On the finish of the primary quarter the fund held 20 lengthy positions and 33 quick positions. The fund ended the quarter with an publicity of 125% lengthy and 45% quick or an 82% web lengthy publicity.
Sincerely,
Sean
Disclaimer Deep Sail Capital LLC (“Deep Sail Capital”) is an funding adviser to funds which might be within the enterprise of shopping for and promoting securities and different monetary devices. This info is supplied for informational functions solely and doesn’t represent funding recommendation or a suggestion or solicitation to purchase or promote an curiosity in a personal fund or every other safety. A proposal or solicitation of an funding in a personal fund will solely be made to accredited traders pursuant to a personal placement memorandum and affiliate subscription paperwork. Previous efficiency is not any assure of future outcomes.
“Deep Sail Capital LLC” identify was modified on April 7 th 2022 from the earlier identify “Organon Capital LLC”.
“Deep Sail Capital Partners LP” identify was modified on April 6 th 2022 from the earlier identify “Westropp Funds LP”.
Click on to enlarge
Authentic Publish
Editor’s Word: The abstract bullets for this text had been chosen by Looking for Alpha editors.
Editor’s Word: This text discusses a number of securities that don’t commerce on a significant U.S. trade. Please concentrate on the dangers related to these shares.
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