After greater than a yr of relentless battle within the Center East, the gorgeous capitulation of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime will go down within the area’s historical past as certainly one of its biggest shocks.
In simply 12 days, rebels marched from the north after which the south to the center of Damascus, capturing the capital and ending the Assads’ greater than 50-year dynastical rule over the nation. In lower than two weeks, they achieved what tens of 1000’s of armed opposition fighters had didn’t do in 13 horrendous years of civil warfare.
Moscow and Tehran, Assad’s primary backers, have been unable, or unwilling to stem the tide, each caught up in their very own conflicts — Russia in Ukraine, Iran and its proxies of their 14-month battle with Israel.
In some ways, the regime’s spectacular fall seems to be one of many inadvertent penalties of Israel’s ferocious retaliations in opposition to its foes since Hamas’s October 7 2023 assault. The next yr has upended all earlier norms within the area, fostering a flamable, unpredictable setting.
Israeli forces have for months been launching air strikes on Syria, killing Iranian and its proxies’ commanders, whereas bombing services linked to Iran and Hizbollah, the Lebanese militant motion that additionally supported Assad’s regime throughout the civil warfare.
Individuals stand atop a toppled statue of Syria’s late president Hafez al-Assad in Damascus © Louai Beshara/AFP/Getty Photos
However greater than something, the rebels’ lightning offensive underlined the parlous nature of Assad’s damaged, corrupt regime.
Assad, who succeeded his father Hafez al-Assad in 2000, was a brutal despot. He used the cruellest of means to place down his opponents throughout the civil warfare: chemical weapons, barrel bombs, siege and hunger techniques, mass detentions, torture and homicide.
Greater than 12mn folks — half the inhabitants — have been pressured from their houses throughout the decade of warfare. There are greater than 100,000 so-called “disappeared” — individuals who have been taken by the safety forces, their whereabouts nonetheless unknown.
Because the parasitical regime bled the nation dry, even these from his personal minority Alawite group, who had despatched their sons to die in Assad’s warfare in opposition to his personal folks, had turn out to be demoralised, hopeless after years of deepening financial and social woes.
Assad’s demise might be welcomed by the various thousands and thousands who suffered below his rule as he refused to compromise and negotiate a political settlement along with his opponents that would have stabilised the nation and put it on a unique trajectory.
However the large outpouring of jubilation might be tempered by wariness about what comes subsequent.
The offensive was led by essentially the most highly effective insurgent power, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an Islamist group that could be a former affiliate of al-Qaeda, branded a terrorist organisation by the UN, the US and different states. Its chief Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, who publicly said his need to beat Damascus and now seems the important thing resolution maker, as soon as fought with Isis, the jihadist group, and has a $10mn US bounty on his head.
Through the six years since HTS has dominated the north-western province of Idlib via a civilian-led authorities, he has sought to rebrand the group as a extra reasonable Islamist motion. Nevertheless it maintained management with an iron grip, and UN companies have documented abuses.
If 42-year-old Jolani does achieve his ambition to rule, that may create conundrums for western powers and worldwide companies about how they need to have interaction with him and HTS.
However HTS is just one of quite a few opposition teams which can be the remnants of the unique insurrection and took half within the assault. And prior to now, the assorted factions have clashed with one another.
Through the newest offensive, there was co-ordination between HTS and Turkish-backed factions that function below the umbrella of the Syrian Nationwide Military, and different teams that encircled Damascus from the south.
The true check, nevertheless, will come when the factions search to divvy up the spoils of victory — and energy.
Armed males pose for footage close to a army car belonging to the Syrian regime forces and seized by anti-government forces © Omar Haj Kadour/AFP/Getty Photos
Malik al-Abdeh, a Syrian analyst, mentioned he takes solace from the truth that the insurrection seems to have been clearly co-ordinated between HTS and the assorted different teams, describing the assault on the regime as a “controlled demolition plan”.
“This sense of euphoria and pride has also been tempered by the sense there might be violence — it’s almost too good to be true,” Abdeh mentioned. “But it’s clear there is a plan, it’s been very carefully communicated by HTS and Jolani that there is a map. This has reassured a lot of people.”
Except for the Sunni Muslim insurgent teams, there are Kurdish-led forces — which the US backed within the combat in opposition to Isis — that management a swath of north-eastern Syria.
Turkey, nevertheless, considers them an extension of Kurdish separatists which have fought the Turkish state for many years.
Turkish troops have for a number of years deployed in northern Syria to push again in opposition to the Kurdish militants and its hyperlinks to the Sunni insurgent teams. This implies Ankara is now arguably essentially the most highly effective actor in its neighbour, and can play a pivotal position in what comes subsequent.
Turkey, nevertheless, has a fancy, at occasions awkward relationship with HTS, which it has additionally designated a terrorist organisation.
The US, in the meantime, has about 900 troops within the nation to assist the combat in opposition to Isis.
Along with the danger of intra-rebel clashes, there might be fears that Isis — which as soon as managed giant components of northern and north-eastern Syria — will search to use the chaos and make a comeback.
Minority teams throughout Syria, lengthy one of many area’s most secular nations — an element that served Assad as a member of a minority himself — might be involved about what comes subsequent. The nation has a various inhabitants of tribes, religions and sects.
Through the offensive, Jolani, an urbane pragmatist, reached out to tribes, former opponents and brokered give up agreements whereas ordering the safety of minorities.
Neighbouring nations, together with Israel, Jordan and Lebanon, will even be cautious, as will Gulf states that re-engaged Assad in recent times and look at Islamist actions as destabilising forces.
It served Syria’s neighbours to see Assad weakened, and Israel has lengthy wished an finish to Iran and Hizbollah’s presence on its northern border. However there will even be concern on the potential prospect of a fragile, hollowed-out state in chaos with Islamist teams on the fore.
Advisable
When common uprisings in opposition to authoritarian regimes swept throughout the Center East in 2011, a wave of optimism rippled throughout the area. Nevertheless it was all too transient.
Syria descended into its devastating civil warfare. In Egypt, the military seized energy in a popularly backed coup two years after veteran president Hosni Mubarak was toppled and is dominated by one of many area’s most autocratic regimes.
In Libya, there was a momentary dalliance with democracy earlier than rival armed factions turned on one another and the north African nation stays fragmented and chaotic.
The problem dealing with Syria now that Assad has lastly been ousted is whether or not it could actually navigate the pitfalls and keep away from the calamities that blighted different nations after the autumn of despots, and begin the daunting means of rebuilding and reconciling.
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