Fasai Budkaew
“You have to accept the fact that sometimes you are the pigeon, and sometimes you are the statue.” -Claude Chabrol
To My Companions and Mates:
Black Bear Worth Fund, LP (the “Fund”) returned -9.4% in December and -1.4% in 2024. The S&P 500 (SP500, SPX) returned -2.4% in December and +25.0% in 2024. The HFRI Index returned -1.2% December and +11.5% in 2024. We don’t search to imitate the returns of the S&P 500 and there will likely be variances in our efficiency.
Observe: Extra historic efficiency will be discovered on our tear-sheet.
Whereas the pure response to our December and 2024 returns could be disappointment, I’m coming into 2025 with a a lot totally different perspective. In December our prime positions dropped by 15-20+%. There are various the reason why the shares offered off however will be summarized as a damaging sentiment shift. And sentiment is short-term. The long-term theses stay intact, and we used December as a chance to meaningfully add and additional focus in our companies. We have now a number of names within the portfolio the place a everlasting capital impairment is distant and a path to being up 50-100% is cheap. As well as, we’re discovering a number of quick prospects which can be going to have a “valuation meets reality” second within the coming 12-24 months. Regardless of a 12 months of treading water, we’re nonetheless outperforming the broader indices during the last 3 years whereas taking 30-40% of the chance. That is an instance of the ability of defending capital throughout tumultuous instances (2022).
I can solely act on what’s in entrance of us now and our investments are as compelling as at any time since I began the Fund. It’s typically most uncomfortable including or beginning an funding when issues look dangerous however when you agree with the thesis, it’s usually the most effective time to make the funding. I’d encourage you to think about the deserves of what I lay out beneath. That is my “pound the table” second to say you’d be including/becoming a member of at a compelling time.
A typical theme in a couple of of our investments (HCC/POU.TO/FLG) is that they’re within the midst of a capital- funding cycle. The present market doesn’t appear hospitable to those sorts of concepts. The valuations for these firms are extraordinarily enticing and whereas we aren’t getting the near-term sugar excessive of market acceptance, I anticipate a serious re-rating when the capital-investment cycles finish within the subsequent 12-24 months. We’re getting paid an especially excessive IRR to be affected person and wait.
The broader themes of the portfolio are largely the identical as we entered 2024.
International shares – we’re discovering a whole lot of alternative outdoors of the U.S. markets with 37% of our portfolio in foreign-domiciled firms. Housing – Structurally underbuilt housing with a rising want as millennials kind households. With rising mortgage charges, present residence provide ought to stay low and profit the brand new homebuilders and by extension their suppliers and distributors. Metallurgical coal (coal for metal) – Vital underinvestment in a wanted enter for worldwide metal consumption significantly in Asia and India the place high-grade met coal assets are restricted. Power/Pure assets/Commodities – Vital underinvestment in pure fuel, oil and thermal coal that are mandatory for the worlds economies to operate and develop. Whereas renewables will play an rising function the change will happen over a long time, and never years. New: Regional financial institution/REIT turnarounds – We have now 2 investments with managements/Boards which can be forward of the sport in turning their companies round. Each know the problems they’re managing and have been proactive and smart in defending shareholders’ pursuits. Each have invaluable belongings with steadiness sheets which can be wholesome (FLG) and/or actively de-risking (FSP). On the identical time, we’re quick related firms with administration groups which can be obfuscating/ignoring the problems and have unhealthy steadiness sheets (some rhyme with our shorts of Silicon Valley Financial institution/First Republic).
Breakdown of PNL Parts
Our quick positions offset the positive aspects we made in our fairness longs (companies we personal) and earnings on money/T- payments. Our portfolio and positioning are mentioned at size on this letter so will chorus from repeating myself right here.
Credit score Shorts/Fairness Shorts
We entered the 12 months with a significant fairness quick place (~46%) and credit score quick place (~35%). Whereas I don’t title shorts particularly, there are some constant themes represented. Some examples:
Banks/non-public credit score lenders/actual property bridge lenders – We’re quick a financial institution that rhymes with our Silicon Valley/First Republic quick within the sense that I believe the financial institution is technically bancrupt. They’ve belongings overmarked on their steadiness sheet and are taking part in video games recognizing impending losses. The identical will be mentioned in regards to the non-public credit score/bridge lenders we’re quick. Their tenants/debtors are catching colds and thru aggressive accounting they’re pushing off the loss recognition. In time the dividends will likely be additional minimize, and the money merely gained’t be there. Legacy knowledge facilities – These companies eat capital and produce mediocre levered returns on capital (single digits). The accounting is squishy, and the economics are dreadful. They’re massively levered and the final AI- “mania” has been a rising tide lifting all ships. Like actual property, not all knowledge facilities are created equal. A corollary could be the bifurcation between Class A workplace which is doing higher (newer construct knowledge facilities) and struggling Class B workplace (legacy knowledge facilities).
We stay quick longer length credit score devices. The unfold for company bonds is close to all-time lows with little or no in the best way of defaults/financial dangers priced in. Whereas long-term rates of interest have risen, they’re in a traditional vary if one assumes 2-2.5% inflation. Presume 2.5% inflation + 0.50% for a short-term rate of interest of three%. Add 1.50% for a traditional yield curve and also you get to a 10Y of 4.5%. If inflation is greater and /or we have to borrow considerably (i.e. lack of governmental fiscal self-discipline) the 10Y and danger spreads may rise.
High 6 Companies We Personal
I’m together with our prime 6 concepts as I take into account Flagstar Monetary (FLG) a core place given its weight within the portfolio.
Builders FirstSource (BLDR) – 14% of AUM
BLDR declined 23% within the month of December after housing fears returned to the market. This mirrored the selloff skilled throughout COVID as short-term mortgage price fears returned. I seen this as a first-rate shopping for alternative and added a significant quantity of inventory.
BLDR is a producer and provider of constructing supplies with a give attention to residential development. Traditionally this enterprise was cyclical with minimal pricing energy as the first merchandise offered have been lumber and different non-value-add housing supplies. For the reason that GFC, BLDR has targeted on rising their value-add enterprise that’s now 40%+ of the topline. The corporate has modest leverage and has been utilizing their plentiful free-cash-flow to purchase in over 40% of the inventory within the final 33 months.
Our long-term thesis stays intact as there’s a structural scarcity of housing within the USA. Increased mortgage charges cut back the provision of present residence provide as owners are locked into low-rate mortgages. As we’ve seen in current historical past, the general pie of housing exercise could shrink, with new homebuilders capturing an rising share of residence gross sales. Homebuilders can buy-down the mortgage to a decrease price and settle for a decrease,but nonetheless wholesome margin on the house sale.
Previous letters have commented that the approaching 6-12 months could possibly be rocky and BLDR (the inventory) has not upset. The enterprise continues to carry out nicely, and I’m optimistic that administration took benefit.
The corporate has sustained greater gross margins as they’ve gained scale. I estimate normalized free-cash- circulate per share to be $12-$17 per 12 months implying a free-cash-flow yield of 8-12% with no development priced in.
Paramount Sources (POU:CA) – 14% of AUM
Paramount is an ENP (exploration and manufacturing) within the power area. Within the 4th quarter the Firm offered the majority of their mature belongings and will likely be making a big money distribution of $15 CAD (~47% of the inventory value at year-end) in Q1. I anticipate extra disclosure within the coming months after the sale goes by way of. The remaining Firm can have liquid money/investments to fund extra exploration for growth.
My tough breakdown for this funding is as follows and appears out 2-3 years as soon as their funding cycle is extra mature.
$14 of tax-adjusted dividend in Q1 or Q2 Plus: $7 of money/marketable securities on the steadiness sheet Much less: $4-$5 of growth prices over the approaching 2 years Plus: $1-$2 of privately owned belongings
The entire of the asset worth is ~$18 per-share vs. a year-end inventory value of $32, implying a $14 worth for the long run anticipated free cashflows. I roughly estimate, primarily based on the present disclosure, that they’ll generate $2-$3 of annual free money circulate in a benign oil surroundings (or an unlevered 14-21% return). Our ideas may change to the up or down as we get additional disclosure. It is very important observe administration owns virtually 50% of the Firm and is totally aligned with us and has been glorious operators.
CONSOL (CEIX) /Arch Sources (ARCH) – 12% of AUM mixed
Each ARCH and CEIX have been down ~18% throughout the month of December as fears of retaliatory tariffs (these have a big export part to their companies), financial slowing and certain tax-loss promoting drove the shares decrease. Like our dialogue on BLDR, the long-term story stays intact, and we used this as a chance to additional focus our funding. On account of their impending merger neither Firm can purchase again their inventory. As soon as the merger is full in Q1 there must be plentiful money to purchase again inventory. I’m usually constructive on the merger because the Corporations ought to have the ability to understand some modest synergies. My sense is extra mergers will likely be coming to this sector given the depressed costs of the securities.
ARCH is without doubt one of the main U.S. producers of high-quality metallurgical coal (“met coal”). That is the form of coal used for steelmaking. ARCH additionally has a thermal coal enterprise that contributes ~20% of their earnings.
CONSOL is a number one producer of thermal coal.
Met coal demand is projected to climb for the following 25 years, pushed by the financial growth and urbanization in India and the remainder of Southeast Asia. ~60% of the world’s inhabitants lives in Asia, the place met coal demand is centered and the place native sources are restricted. Over the approaching years demand will seemingly outstrip provide, resulting in greater costs. There was a extreme lack of funding in met coal because of ESG issues with funding peaking in 2014.
Tough math on the mixed firms looking 2 years from now (vs. a $5.7BB mixed market cap):
Accrued FCF (internet of liabilities) of $300MM-$1.5BB The present mixed enterprise producing between $500MM-$1BB per 12 months Let’s presume non-heroic FCF yield of 15% which involves $3.3BB-$6.7BB A marine terminal producing $50-$70MM in FCF that’s price $500MM-$900MM Synergies of $60-$100MM at a 15% yield =$400-$700MM in worth $4.9BB – $10.8BB in market worth – (down of 14% vs an upside of 90+%) utilizing a 15% FCF yield
The above is a really tough calculation and exhibits the large margin of security baked into the value. I imagine the working enterprise ought to command a greater valuation implied by a 15% FCF yield…. however for now, we should not have to make any huge leaps with respect to valuation. I wouldn’t be shocked to see these companies shock to the upside given the worldwide looming excessive grade met coal scarcity and cost-advantaged manufacturing/delivery.
Warrior Met Coal (HCC) – 11% of AUM
Warrior was down 22% throughout the month of December, seemingly for related causes that ARCH/CEIX offered off. Equally to BLDR, CEIX, and ARCH we used this weak point as a chance to purchase extra inventory.
Please reference the met coal dialogue above, because it applies to Warrior Met Coal. At present the majority of HCC’s FCF is being invested in a capital mission that will likely be concluding this 12 months. As soon as the enterprise winds down their funding interval they’ll gush money.
Tough math on HCC looking 2 years from now (vs. a $54 year-end inventory value)
Accrued FCF internet of liabilities: $14-$23 per share The present enterprise producing between $6-$10 in FCF Let’s presume non-heroic FCF yield of 15% which involves $40-$67 per share A low-cost/best-in-class new asset (Blue Creek) that’s price $7-$18 a share utilizing 15% FCF yield $67-$118 vs. a year-end value of $54–utilizing a 15% FCF yield
Just like the prior dialogue, the above is a really tough calculation and exhibits the large margin of security baked within the value. I imagine the working enterprise ought to command a greater valuation implied by a 15% FCF yield…. however for now, we should not have to make any huge leaps with respect to valuation.
Asbury Group (ABG) – 10% of AUM
Asbury Group operates auto dealerships throughout the USA. The power of the mannequin comes from the again of the home in elements and companies the place greater than 50% of the earnings come from.
When an auto vendor sells a automobile to a shopper, they seize each the trade-in (stock to promote) and the connection between elements and companies. It’s a razor-razorblade mannequin in a extremely fragmented trade (many dealerships are owned privately by households). The big vendor teams have transitioned to an omni-channel mannequin the place a lot of the promoting/pre-buy exercise will be completed on-line, decreasing the necessity for headcount and making the transaction smoother for his or her prospects. The decrease working prices of the enterprise usually are not appreciated by the market. They’re appreciated by us and the administration groups as most sellers, together with ABG, have been shopping for in numerous inventory with their free-cash circulate.
ABG ought to have the ability to earn $25-$35 in free-cash circulate per share in a “normal” 12 months. At year-end pricing that means a 10-14% annual yield. I hope administration continues to purchase again a whole lot of inventory at these ranges!
Flagstar Monetary (FLG)– 10% of AUM
Flagstar Monetary was down 22% within the month of December, doubtlessly exacerbated by tax-loss promoting. The elemental story (beneath) didn’t change, and we meaningfully added to our place to reap the benefits of the selloff.
Flagstar Monetary is the previous New York Neighborhood Financial institution (a mashup of Flagstar Financial institution, New York Neighborhood Financial institution and belongings from Signature Financial institution). Like our SHORT investments in Silicon Valley Financial institution and First Republic, FLG had a gap of their steadiness sheet (from soured multifamily and workplace actual property vs. long- length securities). That’s the place the similarities finish.
FLG raised over $1BB in extra capital, led by former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. They revamped the administration group and introduced in a famous person CEO in Joseph Otting who efficiently rotated OneWest Financial institution put up GFC (previously referred to as IndyMac Financial institution). In 9 months, the administration group has completed greater than most groups can do in 2+ years. They’ve reviewed practically all of the loans on the books, offered off non-core belongings elevating extra capital and are targeted on delivering a narrowly-focused, well- capitalized boring regional financial institution. On this case boring is nice. Importantly, they’ve taken a conservative view of their mortgage e-book and a big credit score reserve. This contrasts with a number of financial institution/non-public credit score lenders we’re quick who’ve taken minimal reserves. Mr. Otting and his group are my form of managers – they’re plain- spoken, hardworking and plan for the worst whereas hoping for the most effective.
The valuation is extraordinarily compelling. At year-end the financial institution was buying and selling at ~51% of a conservatively marked steadiness sheet. That is in distinction with related banks (who’re NOT conservatively marked) buying and selling at 140- 160% of their tangible e-book worth. FLG ought to full working through the majority of their points by the tip of 2025 and method “normal” throughout 2026. Given the conservative nature of the administration group, I wouldn’t be shocked if it occurred sooner. At 100% of TBV (nonetheless a reduction to the market) the inventory would roughly double. At these costs the draw back appears minimal and will see this enterprise up 50-150% over the following 1-3 years as it’s extra appropriately valued.
Fund Updates/Tax Dialogue
It’s anticipated that buyers will obtain some long-term capital positive aspects in addition to short-term losses that could possibly be used as an offset for different elements of your portfolio.
Giving Thanks
I do know that being affected person is less complicated when there’s a “+” in entrance of our returns however we’ve a cultivated group of buyers that vary from people to household places of work that perceive we’re making multi-year investments. I admire your belief and partnership.
A giant thanks to our service suppliers (BTIG, Opus Fund Companies, EisnerAmper and Kleinberg Kaplan) for serving to all year long. They’re well timed and useful of their work and assist the enterprise hum. Thanks to our CFO, Dave Proskin, for serving to take a whole lot of the monetary blocking and tackling off my plate permitting me to give attention to the portfolio.
Lastly, thanks to Lauren and the children. A supportive household is required on this enterprise (a minimum of for me) and it will be arduous to handle if not for them.
Concluding Ideas
Our portfolio is a coiled spring. When it snaps up, I don’t know. We personal wholesome firms, with the wind at their again, run by glorious administration groups at extraordinarily low cost costs. As a lot of them exit funding cycles they’ll have the ability to deploy large quantities of capital and purchase in low cost inventory…which can have already got occurred in This fall. Our quick e-book has a group of firms which may be well-liked at this time however have fragile financial underpinnings.
As I discussed earlier than, when you have been considering including to your funding (or becoming a member of us) I’d strongly take into account doing so now. I do not know if the costs will likely be decrease within the coming months, however I do know what’s in entrance of us now and it’s as compelling as at any time since I began the Fund.
Thanks to your belief and help.
Adam Schwartz
Black Bear Worth Companions
Enterprise
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