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China’s coal plant development surged final yr to the very best stage in virtually a decade, conflicting with President Xi Jinping’s promise that carbon emissions would peak earlier than 2030, researchers have mentioned.
In a report launched on Thursday, the think-tank Centre for Analysis on Power and Clear Air (Crea) and International Power Monitor (GEM) mentioned that whereas China added a report 356GW of wind and photo voltaic electricity-generating capability in 2024, it additionally started constructing coal energy crops with 94.5GW of capability, essentially the most since 2015.
The brand new development, in addition to the resumption of suspended tasks with one other 3.3GW capability, boosted coal’s position within the energy system of the world’s second-largest financial system regardless of its push into renewables, the report mentioned.
“Instead of replacing coal, clean energy is being layered on top of an entrenched reliance on fossil fuels,” mentioned the report, which was lead authored by Qi Qin, China analyst on the Helsinki-based Crea, and Christine Shearer of California-based GEM. “The parallel expansion of coal and renewables risks undermining China’s clean energy transition.”
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China is the world’s greatest emitter of greenhouse gases, accounting for about 30 per cent of the worldwide complete.
However it’s also quickly growing renewable vitality — its growth of wind and photo voltaic vitality capability final yr was practically equal to the overall put in within the US. Xi has pledged the nation will attain peak carbon dioxide emissions earlier than 2030 and web zero emissions by 2060.
“China has always been a doer in climate response and is firmly committed to green and low-carbon development,” mentioned a senior Chinese language official. “Our carbon emissions intensity has kept decreasing, the share of non-fossil fuel in total energy consumption has steadily increased.”
However the Crea and GEM report argued that structural components in China’s energy era trade meant the surge in coal crops might impede the transition to renewable vitality.
Electrical energy consumers have been locked into long-term coal energy buying agreements that penalised them in the event that they fail to purchase contracted volumes. This discouraged them from prioritising clear vitality, the report mentioned.
Coal mining firms have been additionally funding 75 per cent of newly authorised coal energy capability, driving new tasks even “when market fundamentals do not justify it”, the report mentioned.
“Coal and clean energy are increasingly competing for space in China’s power system. In the fourth quarter of 2024, despite slowing electricity demand growth, fossil fuel generation remained high, while solar and wind utilisation dropped sharply,” the report mentioned.
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Different analysts mentioned that a part of the rationale China was constructing extra coal crops may very well be its lack of a unified nationwide market.
This meant completely different areas constructed their very own coal crops to supply native “load following” — energy used to stability out fluctuations from renewables — doubtlessly creating capability that may not be wanted if there was a nationwide market.
Coal crops and renewables had completely different economics, the analysts mentioned. Coal crops typically obtained “capacity payments” for being learn to make electrical energy out there to the grid to again up renewables.
“For the most part, coal competes with other coal,” mentioned David Fishman, senior supervisor on the Lantau Group, a consultancy.
Fishman mentioned China’s coal plant fleet was working at about 50 per cent capability. Building of extra coal-fired energy stations would “on the whole” imply decrease use of their capability, he mentioned.
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The place local weather change meets enterprise, markets and politics. Discover the FT’s protection right here.
Are you interested in the FT’s environmental sustainability commitments? Discover out extra about our science-based targets right here
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