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By Evan Bauman, Aram Inexperienced & Amanda Leithe
Seeding the Portfolio for Future Progress Market Overview
A market broadening within the fourth quarter sparked by Donald Trump’s election victory and an extra rate of interest minimize from the Federal Reserve proved momentum-driven and brief lived. Whereas small cap, worth and cyclical shares had been bid up within the aftermath of Trump’s win, development shares reasserted management by quarter’s finish. The Russell Midcap Progress Index jumped 8.14% for the quarter, topping the Russell Midcap Worth Index by 989 foundation factors and the S&P 500 (SP500, SPX) by 573 bps, making it the best-performing space of the market. The benchmark completed up 22.10% for the yr.
The ClearBridge Progress Technique delivered optimistic absolute returns for the quarter however underperformed the benchmark Russell Mid Cap Progress Index because of stock-specific weak spot amongst a handful of portfolio holdings and having much less publicity to a number of the higher-beta development names within the index that outperformed. The group added various new positions within the quarter, as part of our ongoing effort to extend the expansion profile and enhance the upside seize of the portfolio.
That stated, we nonetheless imagine in sustaining a balanced method to development, pairing faster-growing disruptors with extra sturdy compounders producing excessive ranges of free money circulate, cyclical growers and development franchises present process a turnaround. We imagine it will optimally place the Technique for outperformance over time.
Exhibit 1: A Balanced Method to Progress
Supply: ClearBridge Investments.
For the quarter, well being care was the biggest drag on relative outcomes as bigger holdings Vertex Prescription drugs (VRTX) and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) suffered losses. Vertex, a biotechnology firm identified for its cystic fibrosis remedies, was harm by a setback in scientific trials for its new therapeutic, suzetrigine, within the continual ache setting. The corporate is continuous ahead for this indication within the hopes that altering the longer term design of its trial will yield extra promising outcomes. Moreover, Vertex hopes to commercially launch the drug for acute ache within the first quarter and remains to be seeing development and patent life extension in its cystic fibrosis franchise. The corporate additionally has further pipeline property, most notably to deal with mediated kidney illness and Kind 1 diabetes, which provides us confidence within the firm’s potential to maintain worthwhile development over the long run.
UnitedHealth declined because of a mix of unfavourable investor sentiment and the growing danger of regulatory scrutiny of its medical insurance enterprise following the stunning public response to the tragic homicide of the corporate’s advantages group CEO in early December. We imagine the corporate, a decades-long holding within the portfolio, is a part of the answer to bettering the outcomes and decreasing the prices of the U.S. well being care system, and that its enterprise mannequin will show resilient.
Industrials had been additionally a detractor from efficiency. L3Harris Applied sciences (LHX), a supplier of avionics and digital programs to the U.S. army, was pressured by issues that protection spending will decline as a part of the brand new administration’s give attention to bettering effectivity. Quite a few our different industrial holdings had been additionally weak as cyclicals, which had a robust run since July, rolled over late within the quarter. Efficiency was supported within the quarter by AI-indexed semiconductor and software program supplier Broadcom (AVGO), together with a cohort of disruptors. Software program makers CrowdStrike (CRWD), HubSpot (HUBS), ServiceNow (NOW), DocuSign (DOCU) and Snowflake (SNOW) all delivered double-digit returns, as did digital well being care platform Doximity (DOCS) and cosmetics retailer e.l.f. Magnificence (ELF).
Portfolio Positioning
To advertise stability, handle danger and increase the portfolio’s development traits, we continued to take earnings in a few of our extra established, bigger holdings to seed new purchases. We imagine that the arms race and worth unlock from AI will present a multiyear tailwind to various firms in our protection. To keep up publicity to this theme, we used a few of our revenue taking in Broadcom to provoke new positions in AI-levered names AppLovin (APP) and Palantir (PLTR).
AppLovin is the world’s main cellular sport and app promoting platform, offering software program for advertising and marketing and monetization, powered by its proprietary AI concentrating on engine Axon. We see alternative for AppLovin to proceed to increase and develop its share of the marketplace for cellular app advertising and marketing, at a time when cellular gaming advert spend is recovering from a higher-rate-driven trough. We additionally see the potential for the corporate to increase its addressable market to incorporate e-commerce promoting, round which early checks have been encouraging. With robust incremental margins and administration maintaining bills managed, the corporate ought to be capable of drive important free money circulate development as income continues to scale.
Palantir is a software-as-a-service supplier with an AI-powered working system that connects information to present buyer functions. Palantir’s platform acts as a hub to enhance enterprise outcomes throughout authorities and industrial finish markets, permitting customers to synthesize numerous information sources into actionable insights in actual time. The corporate is extremely worthwhile and rising quickly at scale with 80%+ gross margins. Given the inventory’s extra elevated valuation we’re being conscious of place dimension.
We additionally initiated a place in quick informal restaurant chain Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG). The current pullback in shares associated to a moderation in industry-wide restaurant gross sales and CEO Brian Niccol’s August departure created a lovely entry level into an organization with industry-leading unit economics in a nonetheless underpenetrated market. Chipotle plans to double its retailer footprint over time whereas executing initiatives to extend quantity development by way of know-how enhancements, decreased cellular order friction and better manufacturing throughout peak hours. Higher throughput, technological integration and improved combine ought to assist to drive continued margin enlargement. Chipotle additional diversifies the portfolio, including to shopper discretionary the place now we have traditionally had much less publicity.
Moreover, we bought Robinhood Markets (HOOD), a longtime disruptor in retail brokerage with a model that resonates throughout youthful cohorts. The corporate ushered within the period of commission-free buying and selling by leveraging cost for order circulate from market makers and in addition generates income from cryptocurrency transactions. Whereas at present sustaining solely about 1% market share of self-directed property, Robinhood is taking share in a big, secularly rising {industry}. Robinhood ought to considerably profit from the upcoming change in administration with decreased regulatory danger round payment-for-order circulate and the potential for insurance policies supportive of cryptocurrency to create a runway for brand spanking new development alternatives.
We additionally exited a number of long-held positions that proceed to generate wholesome free money circulate however not possess the income and earnings development to help the portfolio’s upside seize.
We exited Biogen (BIIB), a biotechnology firm creating remedies for Alzheimer’s illness and different neurological problems. Whereas Biogen has delivered important developments for the biotech sector and has been held within the portfolio for a number of many years, the corporate’s development trajectory is now extra unsure because of a slower-than-expected launch of Alzheimer’s remedy Leqembi, with no clear catalyst for an upward inflection, which leaves the drug’s peak gross sales potential questionable. Moreover, patent expirations and pricing pressures in key therapeutic areas equivalent to a number of sclerosis have additional weighed on earnings potential. Biogen may additionally want acquisitions to stimulate development, doubtlessly growing execution danger and degrading its stability sheet.
We proceed to consolidate our positions inside media to these with extra enticing development prospects over the subsequent a number of years. We offered media conglomerate Comcast (CMCSA) because it faces better competitors and weakening pricing in its core broadband enterprise. The expansion outlook for Comcast is extra challenged as competitors from new entrants and dampened pricing energy has impacted its connectivity enterprise. Business-wide saturation in broadband, coupled with a secular decline in cable TV subscribers, has diminished development potential in its core cable enterprise. Comcast’s potential to offset these subscriber losses by way of worth will increase can be changing into more and more constrained.
Outlook
Whereas upset with the Technique’s relative efficiency because the benchmark change, now we have made important progress in upgrading the standard and development profile of the portfolio. The Technique added over 10 new positions through the yr and continues to reinforce portfolio stability by way of better publicity in sectors the place it has historically been underweight equivalent to shopper discretionary and financials. On the identical time, now we have been concentrating on disruptors leveraging generative AI and quickly taking market shares within the a number of the fastest-growing components of the economic system, closing the weighting hole with the benchmark to high-growth, momentum names equivalent to AppLovin which have led current efficiency.
We imagine our holdings within the $10 billion to $100 billion market cap vary are poised for improved outcomes, each on a basic degree and as macro circumstances change into extra favorable for smaller firms. Whereas the market broadening that started over the summer season has skilled matches and begins, we imagine this cycle of wider management past the Magnificent Seven remains to be within the early innings. The financial management within the Trump administration brings capital markets expertise to coverage making, which we imagine will result in lighter regulation and enhance the atmosphere for M&A exercise, circumstances notably helpful to firms down the market cap spectrum.
Fairly than chasing ideas to maintain up with the index, we’re staying true to the Technique’s long-time method of searching for to personal worthwhile, cash-flow-generative companies. Our disruptors, as an illustration, are flexing their robust fundamentals to widen out their aggressive moats by persevering with to put money into innovation and roll out new services and products. Valuation and danger administration additionally stay key elements in our portfolio development course of and we’ll proceed to train endurance in ready for enticing entry factors into new names and handle place sizes of higher-growth names appropriately.
Portfolio Highlights
The ClearBridge Progress Technique underperformed its Russell Midcap Progress Index benchmark within the fourth quarter. On an absolute foundation, the Technique delivered good points throughout 4 of the eight sectors wherein it was invested (out of 11 sectors complete). The first contributor to efficiency was the IT sector whereas well being care was the principle detractor.
Relative to the benchmark, total sector allocation contributed to efficiency however was offset by unfavourable inventory choice results. Particularly, inventory choice within the well being care, IT, industrials and communication companies sectors detracted whereas choice in shopper staples contributed to efficiency. From an allocation standpoint, overweights to the IT and communication companies sectors and an underweight to the patron discretionary sector proved helpful whereas an chubby to well being care harm outcomes.
On a person inventory foundation, the main absolute contributors to efficiency had been Broadcom, CrowdStrike, HubSpot, Autodesk (ADSK) and ServiceNow. The first detractors had been Vertex Prescription drugs, Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), UnitedHealth Group, L3Harris Applied sciences and Builders FirstSource (BLDR).
Evan Bauman, Managing Director, Portfolio Supervisor
Aram Inexperienced, Managing Director, Portfolio Supervisor
Amanda Leithe, CFA, Director, Portfolio Supervisor
Efficiency supply: Inner. Benchmark supply: Customary & Poor’s.
Click on to enlarge
Unique Publish
Editor’s Be aware: The abstract bullets for this text had been chosen by Searching for Alpha editors.
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