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By Jeffrey Bailin, CFA & Aram Inexperienced
The Yr Narratives Reigned Supreme – Market Overview
We entered 2024 with situations organising for a potential rebound in small cap shares; nonetheless, the yr wound up sharing many similarities with 2023, alongside a wholesome share of volatility beneath the floor. The setting proved difficult for lively managers, with an unprecedented set of slim themes driving each benchmark and particular person inventory efficiency. Like lots of our friends, the ClearBridge Small Cap Progress Technique struggled with the acute focus of the benchmark within the first half and a violent rotation into small caps within the third quarter. Nonetheless, stable idiosyncratic contributions from a various vary of holdings allowed us to maintain tempo with the benchmark within the fourth quarter, which we imagine is attributable to a robust cohort of recent funding concepts. This current efficiency, coupled with what we imagine is a extra favorable backdrop for small cap development securities in 2025, makes us optimistic getting into the brand new yr.
From a macro perspective, the U.S. financial system averted what had been a broadly anticipated recession in 2024, powered by resilient consumption and productiveness upside. As had been hoped, the tempo of inflation cooled over the course of the yr, whereas the labor market was moderately regular each from a job creation and wage development standpoint. This backdrop supported the Federal Reserve’s means to start normalizing financial coverage with 100 foundation factors of fee cuts over the course of the final 4 conferences.
2024 was one of many strongest years for the momentum issue on file, with a enterprise’s precise or perceived publicity to quite a lot of interrelated mega themes and narratives principally tied to the unprecedented infrastructure buildout to assist generative AI ambitions – driving accelerating development, increasing multiples or each. We’ve got beforehand mentioned how this led to unprecedented benchmark focus in a number of securities, a few of which had been extremely speculative (with subsequent materials declines of their inventory costs after they left the Russell 2000 Progress Index within the annual rebalancing cycle). The animal spirits that first manifested in something tied to generative AI/chips expanded to information heart buildouts, HVAC gear wanted for these information facilities, service suppliers to construct/set up these methods, and eventually energy options to assist the electrical energy calls for of this multiyear generational product cycle, which has been compressed right into a interval of 12 to 18 months. Inside our small cap development investing universe, this enthusiasm has additionally brought on buyers to hunt out speculative however doubtlessly high-growth publicity to themes like nuclear power, house and bitcoin.
Taking a better look, the market may finest be characterised into three intervals: the primary half, the third quarter and the fourth quarter. The primary half of the yr was dominated by the Magnificent Seven and investor enthusiasm for AI, which peaked in early July because the delicate June CPI information marked an inflection level in equities, paving the best way for Fed cuts/coverage normalization and a management rotation. This was mirrored in a pointy rally in smaller cap and worth shares. Extra lately, investor consideration shifted towards the election and an fairness market management tug of conflict influenced by politics/coverage hypothesis. Exterior of generative AI and the second- and third-order derivatives, this was a yr of pushouts for a lot of sectors and still-present challenges for lower-income customers and small companies.
The yr additionally noticed continued excessive divergence in efficiency between massive cap and small cap indexes, with a four-year dropping streak now within the books. In keeping with the Jefferies Fairness Technique workforce, this has been the longest dropping streak ever for small caps, with relative valuation fashions equally close to historic lows. The Russell 2000 Progress Index returned 15.15% in 2024, underperforming the Russell 1000 Progress Index by 1,820 foundation factors, a streak that continued within the fourth quarter with the indexes returning 1.70% and seven.07%, respectively.
In abstract, as we glance again at 2024, the widespread denominator has been the dominance of the narrative on the expense of longer-term elementary and high quality derisking. The next quote from Peter Brooks’ Seduced by Story feels apropos these days for the fairness markets: “Narrative seems to have become accepted as the only form of knowledge and speech that regulates human affairs.” Whereas this may be true within the quick time period, we imagine a affected person and constant elementary derisking course of in assessing small cap development corporations can be rewarded over time in economically pushed capital markets.
Regardless of these challenges, we see a number of causes to be optimistic getting into 2025. With a continued easing cycle, secure macro components and a possible handoff to quicker earnings development for small caps, the asset class may very well be poised to finish its current dropping streak.
Portfolio Efficiency
Regardless of underlying volatility and a difficult December, the ClearBridge Small Cap Progress Technique carried out in step with the Russell 2000 Progress Index within the fourth quarter.
The confluence of upper charges and the shocking and doubtlessly disruptive nomination of RFK Jr. as Secretary of Well being and Human Providers weighed closely on a number of well being care subsectors resembling biotech and suppliers and well being care providers. Consequently, the Technique’s underweight to biotechnology in addition to company-specific outperformance of some medical gadget holdings drove sturdy relative efficiency within the quarter. Moreover, outperformance throughout a various vary of our industrial holdings was a constructive contributor. One standout was Bloom Vitality, a supplier of other power merchandise, which introduced a major partnership with a significant utility to supply gasoline cells to energy AI information facilities, crystalizing its potential publicity to a fast-growing supply of energy demand.
Conversely, a number of beforehand sturdy 2024 performers in IT and client discretionary, resembling Varonis (VRNS), a safety software program firm, and Wingstop, a high-growth franchised restaurant idea, noticed revenue taking amid excessive expectations throughout the fourth quarter earnings season. We had trimmed a number of of those holdings in recognition of elevated valuation ranges however, contemplating enticing long-term income and revenue compounding potential, we proceed to take care of publicity to each.
Portfolio Positioning
2024 proved a very lively yr for brand spanking new concept era: we added 23 new investments whereas exiting 29 because of quite a lot of issues, together with acquisitions, market capitalization constraints, and our evaluation of ahead return potential. Whereas most of the new investments we made throughout the yr are of comparatively modest dimension, we’ll proceed to construct these positions over time offered firm execution and finish market prospects stay intact.
Within the fourth quarter we initiated 5 new investments: Oscar Well being (OSCR), TG Therapeutics (TGTX), Clearwater Analytics (CWAN), Fluor (FLR) and Modine (MOD).
Oscar Well being is a managed care group centered on the industrial Inexpensive Care Act trade market. Whereas there’s modest regulatory uncertainty in its finish markets, Oscar has the potential for market share positive factors, geographic footprint enlargement and important margin enchancment because it scales. TG Therapeutics is a industrial stage biotechnology firm centered on a number of sclerosis (MS), a major power illness finish market. Its lead product, Briumvi, has the potential to develop its market share considerably inside the largest drug class within the $8 billion MS market. Clearwater Analytics is a vertical cloud software program supplier of funding accounting and analytics options for company, insurance coverage and asset administration prospects. The corporate has seen a sexy mixture of sturdy income development by consumer wins and product enlargement, in addition to important margin enlargement. Fluor is without doubt one of the largest engineering, procurement and building companies, with international scale supporting megaprojects throughout varied finish markets. With an improved contract construction combine and steadiness sheet, the corporate is poised to learn from an array of high-priority funding initiatives in markets resembling information facilities, GLP-1 manufacturing, mining and nuclear power. Modine is a producer of thermal administration merchandise serving quite a lot of local weather answer (HVAC), air high quality and car/gear finish markets. The corporate has concurrently been seeing inflecting demand and leveraging advantages from inside self-help margin initiatives.
We additionally exited 10 positions throughout the quarter: Aspen Expertise (AZPN) and ChampionX (CHX) forward of proposed acquisitions, in addition to Shoals Applied sciences (SHLS), Viavi Options (VIAV), Certara (CERT), Albany Worldwide (AIN), Hayward Holdings (HAYW), Blackbaud (BLKB), Progyny (PGNY) and Azenta (AZTA).
Outlook
Our funding strategy evaluates companies with none macro tilt, specializing in corporations that may compound excessive ranges of development in massive markets with out relying on macro tailwinds, present sturdy returns and have ample entry to capital to fund high-growth funding alternatives.
Based mostly on our analysis and evaluation, we imagine there are a number of related tendencies heading into 2025:
Political and financial forces are more likely to additional assist onshoring/reshoring tendencies, as corporations look to safe provide chains for geopolitical/tariff issues in addition to in recognition of stock and provide chain vulnerability over the previous few years. This could drive development alternatives for choose corporations inside the industrials, IT, power and supplies sectors. Whereas there stays uncertainty round what insurance policies the brand new Republican administration will pursue and efficiently enact, we anticipate that deregulation can be a key precedence. We acknowledge there could be unintended penalties, each constructive and unfavourable, from such efforts felt throughout sectors, with pockets of IT, financials and industrials as potential winners and higher complexity in assessing the affect in extremely regulated sectors resembling well being care. M&A and capital markets exercise seem poised for an upward inflection. Whereas M&A exercise improved in 2024, we anticipate that higher funding value stability, deregulation and a much less stringent antitrust posture may result in additional acceleration. Against this, IPO exercise has been stagnant for a number of years, making a backlog of high-quality candidates trying to take a look at the market urge for food in 2025. Traditionally, the ClearBridge Small Cap Progress Technique has benefited from a extra sturdy M&A setting whereas replenishing our pipeline of recent funding candidates by the IPO markets.
Though small cap development shares have continued to be challenged relative to their bigger friends, quite a lot of components together with the size of the underperformance, relative valuations, credit score spreads and ahead earnings development recommend that the short-term management rotation of the third quarter may show extra enduring in 2025. Furthermore, after a two-year interval dominated by a slim handful of narrative themes and idiosyncratic challenges for a lot of finish markets (client, SMB, non-AI expertise to call a number of), we may see a broadening out of efficiency. We proceed to seek out an array of enticing funding alternatives throughout the spectrum of development traits we search.
Portfolio Highlights
The ClearBridge Small Cap Progress Technique carried out in step with its Russell 2000 Progress Index benchmark throughout the fourth quarter. On an absolute foundation, the Technique had positive factors in three of the 9 sectors by which it was invested (out of 11 sectors whole). The main contributors had been the industrials and financials sectors, whereas the well being care and client discretionary sectors detracted probably the most.
On a relative foundation, general sector allocation results contributed to returns, however had been offset by unfavourable general inventory choice. Inventory choice within the IT and client discretionary sectors weighed on efficiency, whereas inventory choice within the industrials and well being care sectors and an underweight to well being care proved helpful.
On a person inventory foundation, the most important contributors to absolute returns within the quarter had been Wix.com (WIX), Bloom Vitality (BE), Xometry (XMTR), XPO (XPO) and Shift4 Funds (FOUR). The most important detractors had been Wingstop (WING), Surgical procedure Companions (SGRY), Varonis Methods (VRNS), Zeta International (ZETA) and Vaxcyte (PCVX).
Jeffrey Bailin, CFA, Managing Director, Portfolio Supervisor Aram Inexperienced, Managing Director, Portfolio Supervisor
Efficiency supply: Inside. Benchmark supply: Normal & Poor’s.
Click on to enlarge Authentic Publish
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