The U.S. secretary of commerce oversees the smallest however arguably most advanced of all Cupboard-level departments.
Established as a definite entity in 1913, it has advanced right into a sprawling group with 13 bureaus spanning all kinds of essential areas that embrace climate forecasting, conducting the census, estimating gross home product, managing fisheries, selling U.S. exports, setting requirements for brand spanking new know-how and allocating radio frequency spectrum. It’s even house to one among America’s eight uniformed navy providers, the NOAA Commissioned Officer Corps with its personal fleet of ships, plane and 321 commissioned officers. Its major mission is to watch oceans, waterways and the ambiance in help of the Nationwide Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration.
Consequently, there isn’t a different Cupboard place that has to have interaction with lawmakers in Congress throughout so many disparate technical points, committees and stakeholders. This medley displays each the historic evolution of the U.S. financial system and a level of political happenstance.
I served on the Commerce Division in a number of roles, together with as chief monetary officer and assistant secretary for administration, administration and finances, and have watched a number of administrations try and craft an overarching strategic narrative round this various set of missions.
Apart from the tough job of formulating a unifying technique for the division’s many actions, I consider there are three particular challenges specifically that await the subsequent secretary, a place that requires Senate affirmation.
The Commerce Division manages salmon as a part of its Nationwide Marine Fisheries Service.
AP Picture/Manuel Valdes
Commerce: A sprawling bureauocracy
From its earliest days, the Commerce Division has collected commerce statistics, overseen lighthouses and issued patents and emblems. However since then, its portfolio has expanded considerably.
In 1970, NOAA was positioned inside Commerce, partly on account of a feud between President Richard Nixon and his inside secretary, Wally Hickel, over the Vietnam Battle. NOAA now accounts for greater than half the division’s US$11 billion finances and has created some peculiar departmental overlaps.
As President Barack Obama joked in his 2011 State of the Union speech, “The Interior Department is in charge of salmon while they’re in freshwater, but the Commerce Department handles them when they’re in saltwater.”
Whereas the joke wasn’t fairly correct – a division of Commerce manages salmon in each contemporary and saltwater, although Inside does restore their habitat – it does mirror some odd conditions. For instance, in terms of sea turtles, Inside oversees their nests on shore, whereas Commerce protects them within the open sea.
As a result of division’s broad pursuits, the commerce secretary has a task in practically each essential challenge dealing with the nation.
She or he must be a fast examine who is ready to multitask, reply to congressional inquiries on a myriad of matters, in addition to handle a 50,000-strong workforce together with economists, scientists, statisticians, meteorologists and different consultants.
One instance of the caliber of consultants Commerce oversees is the Nationwide Institute for Requirements and Know-how, which does cutting-edge analysis in bioscience, synthetic intelligence, supplies science and industrial measurement requirements. The institute presently has 5 Nobel laureates in physics and chemistry on its employees and is on the entrance traces on cybersecurity and nationwide protection.
Whereas it’s unclear how Trump nominee Howard Lutnick plans to unify Commerce’s work, the earlier secretary, Gina Raimondo, outlined 5 strategic targets for her division, together with driving U.S. international competitiveness, utilizing knowledge to search out new alternatives and modernizing its providers and capabilities.
The Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation is holding a listening to on Jan. 29, 2025, to contemplate Lutnick’s nomination.
Problem No. 1: One other census is simply across the nook
The incoming secretary’s largest problem would be the decennial census due on April 1, 2030.
The census counts each individual residing within the U.S. and 5 U.S. territories. Census knowledge is used to apportion the variety of seats every state has within the Home of Representatives and to regulate or redraw electoral districts, in addition to to apportion federal funding allotted to every district. Consequently, the census receives large consideration in Congress. It is going to be an particularly sizzling subject as a result of the info collected within the 2020 census had errors as a result of pandemic.
Conducting the census is extremely labor intensive and takes a few years of planning and preparation, which ramp up now.
The Commerce Division should rent 500,000 non permanent employees, open native places of work and run large-scale subject exams, award billions of {dollars} in contracts, and work with each state, native, county and tribal authorities within the nation to map the place folks reside. This contains dorms, homeless shelters, nursing houses, prisons, oil rigs, boats, tents, hospitals and cell houses in addition to homes and flats.
The Census Bureau says it started planning for 2030 way back to 2019 and is getting ready to do a take a look at census in 2026.
Trump administration insurance policies, akin to ongoing efforts to spherical up and deport undocumented migrants, will make it much more difficult to depend immigrants and different traditionally hard-to-reach teams. Throughout his first time period, President Donald Trump sought to stop unauthorized immigrants from being counted in any respect – however ran out of time.
A NOAA crew on a reconnaissance flight into the attention of Hurricane Milton in October 2024.
Sim Aberson/NOAA through AP
Problem No. 2: NOAA on the entrance traces of local weather change combat
Second, NOAA is more likely to be within the political crosshairs, resulting from its position as a world chief in learning oceans, local weather and coastal ecosystems.
It tracks rising sea ranges, ocean acidification and excessive climate occasions, and forecasts their affect on fisheries, transport, marine protected areas and habitats. It additionally runs the Nationwide Climate Service and points extreme storm warnings. These and lots of different NOAA actions are important to monitoring the tempo of local weather change and serving to Individuals adapt.
NOAA’s mission and its finances are positive to be scrutinized by the Trump administration, which has already reversed a wide range of insurance policies meant to gradual the tempo of local weather change. Trump himself has known as local weather change a “hoax.” That and coverage proposals that search to interrupt up or privatize NOAA recommend lots of NOAA’s climate-related actions might be below menace.
Problem No. 3: The patent downside
A 3rd problem the incoming secretary will face is an ongoing disaster on the Patent and Trademark Workplace.
Not like most federal companies, the Patent and Trademark Workplace is funded by consumer charges collected from candidates reasonably than from tax income. That is purported to make it extra environment friendly and simpler to rent employees shortly, however the mannequin is below stress resulting from a scarcity of patent examiners with abilities in assessing science, know-how, engineering and math functions. The company presently has a backlog of over 800,000 unexamined patent functions – close to an all-time excessive.
The backlog is more likely to proceed to develop as synthetic intelligence and different state-of-the-art applied sciences speed up the invention cycle, however the gradual technique of patent approval – two years on common – can throw a wrench in it.
Patents and emblems are essential to U.S. competitiveness as a result of they reward innovation and discovery and assist inventors entice traders.
The Trump administration’s broad federal hiring freeze is more likely to worsen the Patent and Trademark Workplace’s staffing points, whereas the back-to-office mandate could make it tougher to recruit patent examiners, who typically work remotely.
On prime of this, Elon Musk, whose corporations maintain giant numbers of patents and who already holds large sway within the Trump administration, says “patents are for the weak” and in contrast them with landmines in warfare. “They don’t actually help advance things,” he stated. “They just stop others from following you.”
Along with these three areas, Commerce’s roles in worldwide commerce, telecommunications, industrial safety and different issues may additionally turn into epicenters of any international disaster.
This all provides as much as an uncomfortable mixture of political and operational challenges for the subsequent secretary.
This story is a part of a collection of profiles explaining Cupboard and high-level administration positions.
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