MCCAIG
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Transcript
Brian Stewart: Thanks. Nice to be again.
RS: So finish of January, yet one more week I suppose, for this podcast in January. We’re within the thick of earnings season, I might say. I believe that may be an excellent place to begin by way of dissecting latest earnings.
What would you say there? Who would you name out because the winners and who would you name out because the possibly second tier or losers for lack of a greater time period?
BS: Yeah, we do not need to consider anyone as a loser.
RS: No, we do not. No, we do not.
BS: So, I believe Netflix (NFLX) is the place to begin when speaking about latest earnings bulletins. It is actually the most important non-financial identify to announce thus far. It is up about 12% previously week, largely resulting from a submit earnings pop.
The corporate beat expectations, each on income and earnings. After which that headline, the key headline was actually that they added 18.9 million internet subscribers, which was doubling expectations, which is a big win for them. They have been helped by stay occasions, the Tyson versus Paul struggle, after which the NFL video games they confirmed on Christmas, additionally Squid Video games, the brand new season got here in.
So very nice content material slate. I believe in the event you have been bearish on that inventory, particularly after the post-earnings pop, the argument could be that it won’t be repeatable. You are not going so as to add 19 million subscribers each quarter from right here on out. So it may be baked in.
I believe the attention-grabbing factor to have a look at with Netflix is whether or not or not it will be extra of a content material play, whether or not it is essentially changing into a film studio, in a way, the best way Disney (DIS) lives and dies on its Marvel franchise and Star Wars and issues like that.
Possibly Netflix is attending to the purpose the place it’s a must to have a look at its schedule and take its cues from there.
RS: And what else would you say by way of earnings?
BS: I believe subsequent week looms actually massive in earnings. There’s loads of massive tech firms.
Some attention-grabbing motion forward of these by way of indicators of disappointment possibly, or looming fear in some buyers. So Apple (AAPL) is down about 6% previously week. It is reporting earnings subsequent week. It is down about 12% previously month and solely up about 15% previously 12 months.
So I imply, 15% might sound all proper, however that is underperforming the key averages and definitely loads of its tech friends.
I believe Apple’s changing into a present me inventory. I believe there’s loads of worries about whether or not iPhone gross sales are going to maintain up. There is a declining market share there. And so the query for Apple turns into whether or not or not it may ramp up a few of its different merchandise, providers, wearables, the opposite non-iPhone franchises that it has. So, I believe buyers are in a wait and see mode for that firm.
After which Tesla (TSLA) had an attention-grabbing quiet week. It is down about 3% previously week, giving again just a little bit extra of the submit Trump election leap that it had. It is nonetheless up 65% previously 6 months and has doubled previously yr, however I believe there’s fear rising that it may need stretched valuations too far.
It is an organization the place there’s loads of bets on the longer term and loads of bets on issues aside from EV progress. So, you are RoboTaxis and common solar energy, AI normally. So, it is one other firm the place it will need to be now form of proving what the promise has been. So each of these firms are reporting subsequent week and I believe these are going to be the highlights of the week.
RS: So speaking about form of envisioning the longer term, we have seen a little bit of a return to this AI commerce, one thing that is been mentioned in Wall Road Breakfast this week.
BS: Yeah, if we pull means again and have a look at the final couple of years, the inventory market normally has had a blockbuster two years. And loads of that has come from fervent AI buyers, simply folks pouring cash into the tech sector on the wager that that is going to be a transformative know-how.
And so the query that turns into for 2025 is whether or not or not the precise actuality of the progress of AI goes to form of match the expectations. Form of the identical argument that I used to be speaking about for Apple and Tesla.
And so if we are able to boil that all the way down to 1 inventory, Oracle is up 17% previously week. Simply on the joy round this, there’s already been some pushback. Elon Musk himself has mentioned that the financing may take some time or not even be there. So it is a factor the place the announcement will get a giant pop after which we now have to form of see if actuality can catch up.
One other inventory to observe, and that’s Arm (ARM), is up 22% previously week. They’ve a relationship with SoftBank. In order that they’re seen as a attainable winner as they construct out simply offering chips for the Stargate’s information facilities as they get constructed. In order that’s one other inventory to observe as form of a proxy for that commerce.
RS: And what would you say on the macro stage? We’ve a Fed assembly arising. What are you sensing goes to return and what are you sensing is the response that is going to be.
BS: So by way of the precise Fed coverage, subsequent week goes to be just about of a sleep.
The market is at present pricing in a 99.5% probability that they’re going to depart charges alone. So there’s not likely a lot dissent out there about what the Fed’s going to do.
Lots of consideration goes to show then to the projections for the longer term, the evaluation of the financial system and whether or not or not the Fed is more likely to begin slicing charges once more anytime within the close to future. If we simply have a look at buying and selling lately, there is a roughly 74% probability of the Fed holding regular once more in March. That is up from 67% final week.
And that chance was at about 56% a month in the past. In order that’s been edging up. So we’re now form of the Could or June timeframe for the subsequent cuts.
When it comes to 2025 as an entire, the market’s pricing in a 16% probability that there will be no cuts this yr. That is up just a little bit from final week. So normally, individuals are pushing off their bets on when the Fed will lower charges, however not likely altering their opinion of 2025 as an entire, simply form of shifting issues possibly in the direction of the tip of the yr.
RS: And getting again for a second to or for a pair minutes maybe, you have been mentioning the EV house just a little bit. And final week we talked in regards to the oil majors. What are you seeing from these gamers in that a part of the sector?
BS: One attention-grabbing factor in regards to the oil majors, one other main market theme of the previous week has been the inauguration. So Trump got here into workplace and so loads of the promise, the pro-business wager that folks made post-election now’s form of coming to fruition.
There was a flurry of actions and loads of that, particularly within the vitality house, appeared to favor the normal fossil gasoline kind firms. Nevertheless, these shares have been down over the previous week.
Mildly, it is the ExxonMobil (XOM) is down 2%, ConocoPhillips (COP) is down about 2%. So it isn’t like there was an enormous response, however I believe that the market goes to let fundamentals form of drive that. So I believe that the betting on what Trump’s going to do has died down and now individuals are going to attend for the precise exercise to happen.
RS: And what else would you say is price listening to today?
BS: Effectively, we already talked about Apple and Tesla subsequent week reporting earnings, however as you talked about in the beginning, earnings season actually form of hitting its stride subsequent week, so there’s loads of main firms.
We received Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) are additionally saying. Meta’s going to be attention-grabbing. You need to have a look at their spending. One of many worries about Meta is that they’re simply going to spend an excessive amount of. That was the meat with them through the Metaverse section of their growth is that they form of took too massive a wager on the buyer selecting that up.
And now that AI is the place they’re transferring, the query turns into, are they going to be extra focused about that funding?
After which Microsoft has been quietly chugging alongside. I believe that it stands outdoors of the highlight in comparison with firms like Tesla or Nvidia (NVDA) and even Apple.
So it will be form of attention-grabbing to see if it may take the reins of a few of it. I imply, it is an investor in OpenAI, so it is proper in the course of the AI crunch. So it will be attention-grabbing if they’ve any commentary on the way forward for AI.
RS: Yeah, it is positively going to be attention-grabbing to see the way it all performs out on the AI aspect of issues. Though I suppose, would you say that there is a cycle, or timeline for AI?
BS: I believe a part of the issue for buyers is that the timeline is so lengthy. I imply, actually, it will be right here without end, proper? And it will be impacting our lives in various levels and doubtless in an growing quantity over the subsequent years and even a long time.
So you may have a look at it as form of just like the Web revolution. When it began, there was a giant rush to spend money on something that was a dot-com firm. However then we moved into conditions the place we have been speaking about, you recognize, NET 2.0 and it went by way of varied phases.
And the winners did not actually form of catalyze till later within the recreation. I imply, Amazon (AMZN) appears apparent on reflection, however on the time it was simply one in all many firms, you recognize, it was a bookseller. So it wasn’t an excessive amount of completely different than you recognize, PetSmart or the rest.
And so I believe that is going to be the problem for buyers is you are going to need to be affected person and there is going to be corrections and also you’re in all probability going to need to diversify, make strategic bets on the sector normally and never get overly invested in a single firm or one other.
Speaking about what subsequent phases could be, the AI hype, particularly within the inventory market has been largely centered on massive firms, the Nvidias, the Microsofts of the world.
I believe there will likely be a wave of IPOs in some unspecified time in the future, smaller firms with very a lot AI focus and that’ll have form of a blessing and a curse the place there’s going to be extra pure AI performs for buyers to type by way of. So when you’ve got a thesis the place you are trying long term at AI, you may have extra alternatives to play that immediately. The issue is that these are going to be extra win and lose.
An organization like Nvidia, even when it corrects, it isn’t going to appropriate to 0 in any time within the close to future. However a startup may. So it turns into rather a lot riskier, however there’s much more upside presumably in these form of firms as effectively.
So if I have been an investor, I might form of be scoping the IPO market, possibly sketching out the place a few of these alternatives could be. There’s loads of speak about AI and healthcare.
I believe that is an attention-grabbing subsequent stage. So I might be searching for it to maneuver out of simply serving to you write your homework course of and transferring into issues like engineering and healthcare and programming and different features of what is historically been white collar work.
I believe AI goes to do rather a lot to each make that extra productive, but additionally possibly change the labor market in these form of locations. So I believe we’re simply seeing the tip of the iceberg now, and it will be a protracted haul metabolizing the altering AI.
RS: Yeah, we had Kirk Spano on Investing Consultants, and he was speaking about Pfizer (PFE) being the large AI play that he sees coming, to your level about healthcare and AI. Actually nothing if not attention-grabbing to have a look at that a part of the sector, and actually so many, as we watch them develop in actual time and alter the best way we stay.
Final query for the week, I used to be going to ask if there’s every other takeaways you’ve got. Nearly one week submit inauguration, we talked about how there wasn’t going to be a lot we realized within the day after the inauguration. What about nearly every week later, the rest that you just’re selecting up that you just need to share with buyers?
BS: So I believe the tempo of exercise goes to be attention-grabbing to observe. I haven’t got any information on this, however my reminiscence of Trump’s first time period is there was loads of, a flurry of exercise early on. After which as there was resistance to sure insurance policies that issues received slowed down just a little bit after which fairly quickly it is the midterms and nothing’s going to occur till after that.
So, when that wall occurs, when issues die out and the manager orders cease flying from the Oval Workplace, I believe that’ll be attention-grabbing to observe. I do suppose that there will be a time when issues cool down and there will be much less of an aggressive Trump placing his fingers on the scales of varied industries or the administration normally.
So I might search for when which may occur. After which I might search for issues the place there may be below the radar the place that resistance that we’re speaking about to the insurance policies won’t be as fervent. In order that may be drilling, that may be crypto, that may be AI, simply form of areas the place the main focus of the early days can maintain its momentum even when the administration itself begins to run into opposition.
Editor’s Be aware: This text discusses a number of securities that don’t commerce on a serious U.S. change. Please concentrate on the dangers related to these shares.
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