By Howard Schneider
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers assembly subsequent week are anticipated to maintain rates of interest on maintain however the bigger story unfolding will probably be how the central financial institution confronts early strikes by President Donald Trump which are more likely to form the financial system this yr, together with calls for the Fed proceed reducing borrowing prices.
Trump was already complicating the Fed’s job with strikes to limit immigration and lift import taxes, and on Thursday informed international enterprise leaders he would name on the Fed to chop rates of interest.
“I am going to demand that rates of interest drop instantly, and likewise they need to be dropping all around the world,” he said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, revisiting a form of pressure he regularly applied to the Fed with little apparent effect in his first term.
In the first days of his new term, Trump tightened immigration rules with an increase in deportations expected, and threatened higher import taxes on Feb. 1, the first of what are anticipated to be a series of steps that could play out in ways that are still unknown.
The challenge for Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues will be in determining how much to allow uncertainty over what’s ahead to influence decisions on monetary policy now, and how much guidance to give about the Fed’s outlook.
Go too far and it starts to sound political, said Vincent Reinhart, a former top Fed staff member and now chief economist at BNY Investments, but hold back and it risks misleading the public about what to expect if imported goods become more expensive or the labor force has fewer workers than would otherwise be available.
Guidance from the Fed “is a couple of forecast, and at present any forecast is about political financial system. It’s onerous to do for an unbiased company,” said Reinhart. “You can not transfer financial coverage on the idea that there will probably be tariffs or tax laws by the tip of this yr. Proper now there are plenty of shifting elements.”
How fast and in what direction Trump’s policies spool out in coming months are likely to influence what the Fed hopes will be the last phase of its fight to contain inflation that erupted to a 40-year high in 2022 but is now within about half a percentage point of its 2% target.
After cutting the benchmark interest rate a full percentage point last year, the Fed meets on Tuesday and Wednesday with policymakers likely to keep it in the current 4.25%-to-4.50% range. Data since the Fed’s last meeting on Dec. 17-18 has kept intact the core view among Fed officials that inflation will continue to move steadily, if slowly, towards 2%, with a low unemployment rate and continued hiring and economic growth.
‘MAXIMAL OPTIONALITY’
The personal consumption expenditures price index the Fed uses for its inflation goal is already nearing 2% on a three- and six-month basis. Policymakers expect solid progress to resume over the next few months but want confirmation in data.
“We view the January Fed assembly as largely a placeholder,” Bank of America analyst Mark Cabana and others wrote. With so much uncertainty “we count on (the Fed) to retain maximal optionality” to resume cuts in March or continue a pause.
Fed officials have already nodded to potential effects from Trump’s trade, immigration and other policies, with staff at the December meeting penciling in assumptions for slightly slower growth, higher unemployment and little further progress on inflation for the coming year.
Minutes of that meeting showed “a quantity” of policymakers went through a similar exercise, with a freshened median projection from them showing less progress on inflation and a slower pace of rate cuts through 2025 – just half a percentage point versus the full point seen back in September.
That could come into question as well if expected progress on inflation is not realized in the first part of the year, though in his final public comments before the meeting Fed Governor Christopher Waller said policy could also tilt towards more and faster cuts if inflation behaves.
The impact of tariffs is far from certain, and Trump asserts that they will raise federal revenue and shift production to the U.S. Steps toward deregulation, meanwhile, would keep inflation in check.
‘STAGFLATIONARY POLICY MIX’
Trump’s November election victory, meanwhile, has been felt in other ways at the Fed. Governor Michael Barr resigned as Fed vice chair for supervision effective Feb. 28, and the Fed withdrew from an international central bank consortium on climate change – reversing a decision to join the group just before Democrat Joe Biden’s arrival in office four years ago.
Yet the scope of his plans for tariffs, tax and regulatory policy, and immigration is only beginning to take shape, and even the impact of his initial moves may take time to become clear.
Measures of general economic and monetary policy uncertainty spiked after the election. Trump left little doubt in the opening days of his second term that he intends to follow through on his campaign promises – and even extend on them with announcements of at least temporary limits on what national health agencies can say to the public, for example, alongside standing promises to send U.S. troops to the Mexican border and put an initial 10% tax on imports from China next month.
Bradley Saunders, North America economist for Capital Economics, stated he anticipated the Fed to chop charges once more at its March and June conferences, however with any additional cuts doubtful as insurance policies on immigration minimize labor pressure progress to zero and tariffs result in renewed items inflation.
“We expect a stagflationary policy mix from the new Trump administration,” Saunders wrote this week, with the chance “tilted to fewer cuts depending on the exact timing of Trump’s policy implementation.”
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