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2024 Evaluation: Conservative, But Performing
“When everyone else is losing their heads, it is important to keep yours.” Marie Antoinette
We’re happy with the progress our accounts & funds achieved in 2024. As we’ve got written in practically each semi-annual letter the final couple of years, we’ve got elected to maintain our positioning conservative and have stayed away from the hype. Whereas in 2020 & elements of 2021, we owned a few of the high-fliers we see out there at this time, we’re content material sitting outdoors of the pockets of euphoria at this time. Whereas we’re happy, we’re not happy. We’re adapting.
In 2024, our separate accounts composite, generated 16.6% returns, roughly in keeping with the benchmark MSCI ACWI return of 16.3% (Inception thus far: 10.8% CAGR vs 7.7% for ACWI). For fund returns, please see our Outcomes web page to view efficiency, which was modestly higher than this end result. Our first two coinvestment funds contributed considerably to investor returns, powered by whole shareholder returns of 60.7% at CTT and 75.8% at Leonardo.
We now have nearly zero publicity to US markets, and it remained so for practically all of 2024. This isn’t as a result of we do not suppose the world of US corporations, however as a result of we’re value-oriented, downside-protected, and general conservatively positioned for this late cycle market. We exclude alternatives with out outsized medium-term upside potential, which characterizes most massive US corporations at this time.
Our portfolio maintained extra appreciable alpha all year long, and regardless of passable efficiency of our underlying securities in December, the numerous appreciation within the US greenback in December (+2.6%, making a -4.4% headwind for our portfolios in 2024) humbled our finish of yr to solely reporting roughly in-line efficiency.
Nonetheless, with ex-US shares producing mediocre 1.1% returns throughout the yr, as measured by MSCI’s EAFE index, our outcomes aren’t a perform of luck, however got here from catalysts that we’ve got labored laborious to generate. CTT and Leonardo generated 27-28% gross returns for our portfolios, overcoming the FX declines and uneven waters elsewhere to ship us yet one more good yr. These corporations’ owner-oriented governance & capital allocation frameworks have helped drive our funding returns. We consider the momentum in these corporations continues to be within the early levels.
Operating 3x Quicker
“The Red Queen paradox is something that’s stayed with me for a long period of time. And this notion about not being able to move forward, about not making progress by continuing to prod along and assume that the world has not changed is going to entail the demise of this industry.” Sergio Marchionne, Confessions of a Capital Junkie
On this AI-obsessed market with US-index valuations hovering round all-time excessive ranges, we’ve got elected to not take part. As customers of those instruments every single day, this isn’t as a result of we’re skeptics. It is as a result of lots of the corporations with associated AI publicity seem to have hyped-up income projections that reek of “this time is different.” We do not really feel comfy underwriting these valuations and technological danger. Then again, non-US equities are actually at a 3.9-standard deviation low relative to US equities. That will imply they’re additionally in a generational opportunistic second at this time, an excessive outlier remark that ought to happen solely very hardly ever.
Even with out taking part within the funding taste of the day, we should nonetheless present enticing returns to our buyers. We demand passable efficiency in any setting. Fairly than select to play within the pockets of euphoria, we selected to orient our efforts round quaint catalysts and energetic administration – besides once we say energetic, we actually imply energetic.
Over the previous few years, we’ve got engaged with our corporations extra deeply, by occurring the boards of three of them. Whereas extra corporations have invited us to play a task on their boards, we look ahead to the celebs to align. After we decide to an endeavor, we’d like very restricted draw back (low leverage), important upside alternative (income development and hidden high-quality property), and must see areas the place we are able to meaningfully enhance the corporate’s prospects (capital allocation and technique).
Going through unabated pressures from mark-to-myth non-public fairness and enterprise capital funds on one facet, and passive index funds on the opposite, the energetic funding administration {industry} has confronted many headwinds over the previous couple of many years. Actually, 2024 noticed its largest outflow yr on document. Because the herd is loading into the identical tech-dominated indices, the alternatives outdoors of those crowds is outstanding.
And but, the universe of energetic managers to have a look at the big set of alternatives continues to shrink. We consider that to maneuver the needle on inventory efficiency, the setting requires energetic managers to have interaction additional in serving to to create the outcomes for his or her buyers. Whereas it could be that the last word reward takes longer to realize, typically resulting from behavioral biases in direction of an organization, we consider those that participate in creating constructive change will expertise stronger returns for longer than activists achieved previously.
Whereas some journalists have known as us activists by looking for board roles, we disagree with this framing. Because the Chairman of CTT, Raul Galamba, calls us, we’re simply “active owners.” That is it. We care concerning the enterprise efficiency, about buyer satisfaction, and about getting the proper workers engaged. Whereas there are undoubtedly alternatives to enhance capital allocation at corporations that do not have proprietor orientations, that is actually a small a part of what we search to do with our time.
The end result of some, although not all, of those efforts resulted in Leonardo and CTT driving our portfolio’s returns. Each corporations have reported sturdy outcomes and have been shifting assertively on many fast-moving alternatives. Certainly, whereas Sergio Marchionne lamented in 2015 that he needed to run twice as quick simply to get anyplace, in at this time’s world, one must run 3x as quick simply to maintain up with the large-cap tech-driven indices. Our managers have risen to the event and are certainly working at high speeds.
Many elite marathon runners follow at high-altitudes, the place their tempo can typically seem mediocre. Situations are tough, and fairly frankly, the coaching isn’t nice. However when these runners compete at sea degree, they produce “shock and awe” efficiency.
In some ways, investing outdoors of the narrowing areas of momentum has typically felt like working at 10k toes. However moderately than change our behaviors to maintain momentum shares in our portfolios, and even worse, change our benchmark to exclude US equities, we increase our aspirations for the portfolio to carry out regardless. If we ever get again to sea-level, we’re actually enthusiastic about what working 3x quicker will do for our relative efficiency.
Leonardo’s Outsider
“It follows from this [Hofstadter’s Law] that the standard advice about planning – to give yourself twice as long as you think you’ll need – could actually make matters worse.” Oliver Burkeman in 4 Thousand Weeks
Maybe no supervisor has taught us fairly what it means to run 3x quicker than Leonardo’s CEO Roberto Cingolani. Roberto was an “outsider” to public firm tradition, and moderately than deliver “best practices” to the corporate, he has introduced a completely new playbook. Extra necessary than his playbook is the velocity at which he operates.
In line with Hofstadter’s regulation, plans at all times take longer to execute than we expect in the beginning of the method, and take even longer if we account for Hofstadter’s regulation. As such, most public corporations closely under-promise when chatting with buyers, and bake in large conservatism when committing to objectives. But, this additional conservatism may be very generally one of many key causes for a lot of public corporations shifting slower to seize a chance.
Not with Roberto. He’s clear with all, and tells everybody the identical model of the reality, and the identical model of the aim. At first, we did not understand how effectively this could mature. He would inform buyers the identical actual factor he would inform the board, and can be totally clear.
We figured that even when his timetables slipped, the common market participant would not count on industry-leading execution from the corporate (being most cost-effective at school) or the nation (additionally being one of many most cost-effective markets on the earth). Whereas that is what the market thinks, it could not be farther from the reality. I’ve by no means seen any govt have the velocity that Roberto brings with him.
His candid model is strictly why, throughout the second half of the yr, Leonardo was in a position to finalize a really materials three way partnership with Rheinmetall to construct the world’s most trendy tank. The brand new German-Italian tank will make the most of Leonardo’s present applied sciences to create the world’s first totally digitalized tank and can be able to go inside two years.
Taking only a few months to barter a three way partnership and merely a pair years to operationalize a very new product are unparalleled timetables within the protection {industry}. Whereas lots of the merchandise Roberto and the workforce are negotiating at this time will function into the 2100s, Roberto would not function on the identical “long-term” timetables that his friends do. He’s arbitraging time, and we hope quickly will begin to extra assertively arbitrage prices of capital.
As Roberto dedicated to a strategic options course of to enhance the corporate’s lagging aerostructures unit on the third quarter earnings name, we consider we won’t have to attend the historically prolonged company course of right here. Roberto isn’t a company man, and he won’t merely obtain company “best practices.”
He’ll go very far past, and in a fraction of the time. When our candidates had been elected to the board with Roberto, we discovered it humorous that after solely his first earnings name, one sell-side analyst privately fearful that Roberto might solely have three years on this time period to effectuate the dramatic adjustments we had been advocating for throughout our public marketing campaign.
Roberto’s response was traditional: “let’s see if we earn another term. If we barely improve on the status quo, we won’t deserve another one.” Roberto is utilizing his 3-year time period to safe the following few many years of development for Leonardo. He’s solely relying on one-term to drive his transformation. That is his timetable.
That does not imply we’ll all transfer on subsequent yr, but it surely means we’re taking each alternative to effectuate our priorities for the corporate, and won’t look ahead to tomorrow. We thank Roberto and his workforce not only for including ~17-18% to our portfolios this yr, however for exhibiting us a brand new benchmark for velocity of execution.
CTT’s Accelerating Enterprise Mannequin
“I like big industries because even a small chunk of a huge, growing industry is still big…It’s a good feeling when we announce a deal and the stock price goes up that day, but that’s not the point. A good M&A deal should drive stockholder appreciation over the next five or ten years.” -Brad Jacobs, Make a Few Billion {Dollars}
Many puzzled what we noticed in CTT – Correios de Portugal again in 2018, after which in 2019 once we doubled down and went on the board in Could. We noticed a really under-penetrated e-commerce market in Portugal, with fixable loss-making operations in Spain. In a fragmented logistics market, final mile density issues materially.
It did not take the brand new workforce lengthy to reverse the Spanish scenario, and inside a matter of some years, introduced a 0% margin parcel enterprise (consolidated Iberian) to close double-digit in the newest quarters (forward of the extremely worthwhile vacation quarter). This comes within the midst of an {industry} panorama the place the common peer nonetheless earns nothing. That margin and density are a big aggressive benefit – which has allowed CTT to take extra share than any firm in Spain over the previous few years (from ~1% to ~6% in the newest yr).
In December, this “crown jewel” standing was verified by one of the vital venerable companions within the {industry}. DHL, which entered right into a partnership settlement with CTT’s specific & parcels unit, valued this section at 12.5x EBIT, or €482 million. This unit, which is anticipated to generate 40-45% of the corporate’s working earnings this yr, was valued at practically 80% of the market capitalization of the corporate utilizing the pre-disturbed pricing.
However much more enticing than the accretion to the sum-of-the-parts is the market alternative in entrance of the corporate. Having grown its Portuguese market share from <30% in 2019 to >50% at this time, the group has now grown its Spanish market presence from 1% to 15-16%. In a fragmented and money-losing market, meaning with best-in-class high quality of service, the 2 corporations can now conquest market share and consolidate the Iberian market organically.
Exhibit 1: Spanish Parcel Market Share – Pre- & Publish-DHL Settlement
Knowledge supply: CNMC, GreenWood estimates
That market share alternative would not even take into account the extremely differentiated enterprise mannequin CTT has constructed over the previous few years. It has organically grown its cross-border customs and success provides, and has additional bolstered these efforts by making a extremely accretive acquisition of Cacesa, the dominant participant in Spanish customs clearance. Because the mixed enterprise mannequin not solely captures a better portion of the client pockets whereas lowering churn, it is ready to provide cross-border e-commerce corporations much more velocity than another competitor out there. And it’ll do that with best-in-class service high quality and market pricing.
We consider the very best days for this fast-moving workforce lie forward. Whereas many buyers are extra enamored with non-industrial companies, we’re drawn to the very excessive dispersion of outcomes out there within the large world logistics {industry}. As certainly one of our favourite Builders, Brad Jacobs, has proven, important returns could be generated by corporations within the logistics sector. Whereas strong capital allocation has pushed returns at each his companies and CTT’s, the workforce and core enterprise mannequin are key.
After we see shares of InPost buying and selling at 21x working earnings (17x ahead), we surprise why the market views this enterprise mannequin extra attractively than CTT’s, which sports activities a ~7.3x working earnings a number of utilizing the underside finish of this yr’s €100-120 million vary supplied on the 2022 capital markets day.
Given CTT & DHL each introduced they are going to raise the parcel locker community in Iberia from 1k at this time to ~10k within the coming years, lockers on their very own have very low aggressive benefits. Nonetheless, taken along with the densest final mile in a fragmented market, best-in-class high quality of service, expedient customs clearing and success in a turn-key provide, we consider CTT has a considerably extra enticing enterprise mannequin. E-commerce infrastructure companies have an extended option to run, as Iberian e-commerce stays considerably under-penetrated as a portion of retail gross sales.
CTT added 10% to our account returns this previous yr (extra in our fund). We thank João Bento’s unbelievable workforce for his or her dedication to delivering excellent efficiency, and sit up for seeing the enterprise mannequin speed up with new development drivers within the yr forward – all whereas capturing the very important price synergies already quantified to the market (>€35 million) for each transactions.
The fast accretion, synergies, and extra enticing enterprise mannequin will proceed to drive best-in-class working earnings development, which we take a look at per share. Trying on the world peer set, the corporate’s returns have been powered not by valuation enlargement, however by elementary working earnings and FCF development – being the best-performing final mile logistics firm by each measures.
Exhibit 2: Peer Earnings CAGR / Share Worth CAGR
Knowledge supply: CapIQ, makes use of consensus apart from CTT, which makes use of the midpoint of the 2022 CMD steerage (earlier than M&A contributions)
Early in our board tenure for CTT, the corporate modified its motto to “committed to deliver.” It was deeply inspirational for us as energetic house owners, the place we consider dedication is vital to making sure realized returns meet our bold goals. We’re grateful to our buyers which have allow us to stay dedicated to those transformational journeys. We don’t commit rapidly, nor to many concepts. Secular development drivers will need to have long-tailwinds for us to dedicate the period of time it takes to see transformations by. We’re happy that each transformations have hit inflection factors previously yr, and sit up for a rewarding 2025 with world-class managers.
Dedicated to Run
“Commitment is what transforms a promise into a reality” -Abraham Lincoln
Apart from transitory international alternate translation losses (versus buying and selling losses), the 2 different notable detractors from our portfolio had been MEI Pharma (MEIP) and PDD Holdings (PDD) in 2024. Whereas MEI has been working quick on a strategic options course of that it launched final summer time, we’re unable to debate it at this second. We sit up for offering an replace on the funding and our efforts once we can.
PDD Holdings founder Colin Huang is who impressed us to “run 3x faster,” because the relentless company tradition of PDD has constructed an e-commerce firm with roughly the identical GMV (gross merchandise worth) of Amazon (AMZN) in one-third the time it took Amazon to construct itself. Shares reacted negatively when the corporate determined to reinvest its document margins into even quicker development and making a more healthy provider ecosystem. Because it appears set to create a second Amazon with its worldwide website Temu, we’re extremely drawn to the chance. Gross sales are rising 4x quicker than Amazon’s, but shares are priced at lower than 1 / 4 of the Amazon earnings a number of.
PDD is an ideal instance of why we wish to look outdoors of the “Big Ten” corporations which can be practically a 3rd of world market indices. We’d not wish to compete with the demanding company tradition of PDD and Temu. Its working mannequin is relentless at figuring out effectivity all through the manufacturing and promoting provide chain. Not solely is it a extra formidable competitor than Amazon, and rising a lot quicker, however the valuation is 4x extra enticing than Amazon’s.
Whereas PDD trades in US markets, the Chinese language authorities has just lately had its “whatever it takes,” second, and is now readily financing inventory repurchases for listed corporations in its markets. With extra governments and markets competing for world capital, we really feel very comfy with our capital invested in these extremely uneven, prime quality {industry} leaders – largely buying and selling at industry-lagging valuations.
An investor’s psychology is commonly dominated by one’s personal classic expertise. The market circumstances we expertise early in our profession, will typically form the world we see. Our first expertise buying and selling shares was throughout the 1999-2000 Nasdaq growth after which bust. With Steven’s skilled investing profession beginning in 2004, we vividly bear in mind “new economy” corporations the place buyers over-estimated the affect of a yr in 1999, however well-underestimated the affect of the last decade in 2004 and 2005.
Chris’ profession started in 2009, and thus his views are tainted by the World Monetary Disaster and the stench of banks and insurance coverage corporations that thought they might danger mannequin their approach out of any future hassle. This supplied him with a wholesome skepticism of levered corporations, and reminds us with many corporations that the P&L is the previous, and the stability sheet is commonly the longer term.
We see these two classic experiences as complementary in managing a portfolio the place danger and reward are abound. In at this time’s seemingly excessive positioning in U.S. markets, it is key to have a stability of views to be represented. These experiences have underpinned our mission to generate nice efficiency for buyers, it doesn’t matter what setting we discover ourselves in. We now have seen many, and are dedicated to not getting caught up within the feelings of at this time. Whereas in 2006 and 2007, shares had been excessive concurrently across the globe, at this time’s over-valued US market is coinciding with a world alternative set that has by no means been extra enticing. It merely requires energetic possession to unlock.
Exhibit 3: Coinvestment Efficiency – Complete Shareholder Return From GW Board Seat
Knowledge supply: CapIQ. CTT friends: UPS, FDX, DHL GR, POST AT, IDS LN, PNL NL, BPOST BE, PST IM, 6178 JP. LDO Friends: BA. LN, HO FP, RHM GR, HAG GR, AM FP, SAAB B, IDR SM
Lively investing isn’t useless, although it requires an evolution. It requires being energetic house owners. Ultimately, the one-way wager most have made on massive tech-dominated indices will reverse, and when it does, it might result in important volatility. With our fund’s catastrophe hedges, and our money positions, we can be prepared for these days. And thru catalysts which can be more and more below our personal management, we’re dedicated to performing by no matter might come.
In the meantime, we’re discovering no scarcity of alternatives, and have discovered stars aligned for our subsequent energetic funding. Our diligence course of over the previous few years has oriented round corporations the place we see materials upside by some value-added efforts. As lots of you already know, we’re excited to begin our subsequent journey, and hope you will take into account becoming a member of us.
High quality-oriented buyers needn’t solely take a look at the biggest know-how corporations to develop their capital. There are once-in-a-generation alternatives out there in different valleys than the one named after the cyclical semiconductor {industry}. We transfer ahead with enthusiasm, vitality, and a dedication to construct and develop your capital alongside ours.
Dedicated to ship,
Steven Wooden & Chris Torino
Disclaimer:
This text has been distributed for informational functions solely. Neither the data nor any opinions expressed represent a advice to purchase or promote the securities or property talked about, or to spend money on any funding product or technique associated to such securities or property. It’s not supposed to offer private funding recommendation, and it doesn’t have in mind the precise funding goals, monetary scenario or explicit wants of any individual or entity which will obtain this text. Individuals studying this text ought to search skilled monetary recommendation concerning the appropriateness of investing in any securities or property mentioned on this article. The creator’s opinions are topic to vary with out discover. Forecasts, estimates, and sure data contained herein are based mostly upon proprietary analysis, and the data utilized in such course of was obtained from publicly out there sources. Info contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be dependable, however such reliability isn’t assured. Funding accounts managed by GreenWood Buyers LLC and its associates might have a place within the securities or property mentioned on this article. GreenWood Buyers LLC might re-evaluate its holdings in such positions and promote or cowl sure positions with out discover. No a part of this text could also be reproduced in any kind, or referred to in another publication, with out specific written permission of GreenWood Buyers LLC.
Previous efficiency is not any assure of future outcomes.
Click on to enlarge Authentic Publish
Editor’s Be aware: The abstract bullets for this text had been chosen by Searching for Alpha editors.
Editor’s Be aware: This text covers a number of microcap shares. Please pay attention to the dangers related to these shares.
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