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Julian Lin updates his views on hashish REITs NYSE:IIPR and NewLake Capital (1:15). RIP Hashish Development Investor – modified thesis on hashish MSOs (6:45). Why Inexperienced Thumb has executed nicely relative to the sector (13:35).
Transcript
Rena Sherbill: Julian Lin, at all times nice to have you ever on Looking for Alpha. You run the Investing Group referred to as Finest Of Breed Development Shares.
Can I ask you about NewLake Capital (OTCQX:NLCP)? Steven Cress was touting it as considered one of his high dividend picks for the yr. And I do know it was a excessive conviction decide of yours prior to now. Something to say on NewLake Capital?
Julian Lin: Yeah, I believe it could possibly be good to speak about hashish shares, particularly on condition that hashish shares have carried out very poorly after the election. I believe a variety of traders have been hoping for a few issues to occur in November of final yr.
Simply on condition that some traders may need been of the view {that a} Democratic presidency is perhaps extra supportive of the earlier rescheduling course of, which might take away hashish from the identical classification of stuff like heroin, however extra importantly for the hashish shares, it might imply that a variety of these operators will now not need to pay what is named 280E taxes, or simply in plain English, it simply means a variety of these operators will see their free money flows improve considerably.
Numerous these operators, they might have seen their money flows go from destructive to constructive. I am speaking about GAAP free money stream.
And whereas it is not confirmed that the rescheduling course of is derailed, I believe a variety of traders are actually apprehensive that below this new administration, that entire course of, something executed within the Biden administration that was nonetheless in limbo is sort of, we do not have a lot confidence anymore.
However in addition to that, a variety of traders may need been hoping for Florida to legalize grownup use hashish within the state. And a variety of traders thought this was a slam dunk. And sadly, they weren’t in a position, despite the fact that they did recover from 50%, they didn’t attain, I consider, the 60% threshold they wanted to move it within the state. So, a variety of these names that had traded up heading into the election, they’ve since traded down sharply decrease.
And I believe a variety of the problems going through these hashish operators, as I discussed prior to now, has been debt. And for no matter cause, mainly none of those operators have labored in direction of lowering debt over the past couple of years. So, now that we’re out of those regulatory catalysts, they’re left with these extremely leveraged steadiness sheets. And so traders, they do not know what to make of them.
So coming again to the query about NewLake Capital, I suppose the rationale why that is an fascinating concept is as a result of simply a few weeks in the past, it was Revolutionary Industrial Properties, that is (IIPR), that is the larger landlord. They’d introduced, a few weeks in the past, they introduced that their largest tenant, PharmaCann, had defaulted on their leases. After which their inventory, IIPR’s inventory had fallen fairly a bit and was yielding double digits.
In fact, as a landlord, its best-case state of affairs is to simply gather the rents and by no means do something to change the contract, however when the shares are buying and selling this low, and I observe that this stuff, they do not have an entire lot of debt. And within the case of NewLake Capital, they simply haven’t any leverage.
Whereas usually, these web lease REITs are inclined to have substantial leverage. So, they’re very below leveraged, however they’re buying and selling at these single digit multiples of cashflow and these are GAAP cashflow. They do not need to pay the 280E taxes. So, valuations are very low.
And one thing like that’s really very, very bullish as a result of once more, as I discussed earlier, one of many issues with these operators has been simply a few of their cavalier perspective in direction of their steadiness sheets. And so right here we’re saying that IIPR, their tenant may doubtlessly be simply of a better credit score shifting ahead simply because they are going to have a greater, extra accountable perspective towards debt administration.
And so, with reference to NewLake Capital, their inventory additionally had went down in tandem with IIPR as anticipated. However they’re additionally going through some points with Revolutionary Clinics. There is perhaps another ones, however I do know Revolutionary Clinics is an enormous tenant of theirs.
And it was final yr or a number of quarters in the past the place they have been additionally going through comparable points with Revolutionary Clinics and so they had introduced some sort of settlement the place there have been decrease rents and they’ll get fairness or reasonably some sort of like warrants within the enterprise of Revolutionary Clinics. And supposedly, these points are all behind them. And now it appears to be like like Revolutionary Clinics isn’t paying lease anymore. So, the problems are arising once more.
Once more, IIPR had proven beforehand that they have been in a position to work by way of a variety of these tenant difficulties, however we’re seeing one other instance of that. The leverage continues to be with the owner, after all, particularly with these operators. So, leverage, it is not like they might simply shut up store and attempt to spend money on one other property.
So, certain, I believe NewLake Capital, there’s an overhang till they’ll resolve their points with Revolutionary Clinics, however my guess is that any decision there’s most likely going to be fairly gentle and really favorable to the owner, much like what we noticed with IIPR.
And I haven’t got an enormous place within the title now, simply given my danger averse perspective within the present market, however I imply, the inventory nonetheless, it is trying fairly very, very fairly valued right here. It is nonetheless yielding, I believe at this level, yielding simply over a double-digit yield.
Once more, this title has no debt in a sector that usually has loads of leverage. So, it is a very curious instance of a reputation that’s much less dangerous, however working in a really dangerous hashish sector.
RS: Are you continue to working your Investing Group, Hashish Development Investor?
JL: I sadly needed to shut that one, I believe, with hashish shares plunging and never doing nicely it didn’t make sense to proceed working that. Particularly additionally, I additionally had a special view. I had a modified view on the hashish operators when it comes to their funding profiles. And yeah, I closed that final yr.
RS: So that you’re destructive on all MSOs?
JL: I might say, I positively haven’t got conviction to purchase. I believe that a variety of the names after their plunge, they’re low-cost, however there’s some variations right here with non-cannabis shares.
Sometimes when a inventory is affordable, you possibly can tolerate lots, however the issue right here in hashish land is that, once more, they’re paying these 280E taxes, which signifies that even when they lose cash, they’re paying taxes, or even when they’re simply making like $30 million of working revenue, they could pay like $100 million in taxes.
So, they find yourself really shedding cash despite the fact that they’re working profitably. So, the issue right here is these shares, they give the impression of being low-cost on an EV/EBITDA foundation, however they’re burning money.
After which there is not a transparent catalyst at this level, how they might make it so they do not burn money. I imply, after all they might at all times attempt to eradicate their debt, perhaps by issuing a variety of inventory, one thing I have been saying a very long time, however they weren’t keen to do that a 100% greater. They’re most likely not going to be keen to do it now.
So, there’s no clear catalysts to show their cashflow place round. So, we’re mainly taking a look at this stuff. They give the impression of being very low-cost on an EV/EBITDA foundation, however they’re burning money. So, the longer, as time goes by, their steadiness sheets worsen, and the worth proposition simply retains getting worse and worse. So, for lots of those names, the one cause to purchase them is perhaps when you suppose somebody’s going to return round and purchase the entire firm in full.
Perhaps somebody thinks {that a} title like Verano (OTCQX:VRNOF) or Trulieve (OTCQX:TCNNF), they should not be buying and selling at 4x EBITDA, they need to purchase it at 5x EBITDA. By which case, paradoxically, simply as a result of excessive leverage, the inventory value would possibly do very nicely in that case.
However simply from my private funding fashion, I are inclined to deal with companies that I am keen to carry long-term and simply companies that can compound earnings and simply proceed rising. They usually have sturdy steadiness sheets.
Within the case of MSOs, I imply, you can also make the case some are very, very low-cost, however the issue is, if we’re being truthful, simply the principle funding thesis at this level tends to simply be M&A. And that is not essentially the most enticing thesis, even in hashish.
RS: Yeah. It is positively some dispiriting occasions over there. On a scale of 1 to 10, how disillusioned are you within the trajectory of what occurred within the hashish trade or what’s taking place within the hashish trade?
JL: Oh, I imply, if 10 is essentially the most disillusioned, most likely 10, particularly given how a lot cash I misplaced within the sector.
Once I opened the service, I consider it was in 2021 or 2022, I like many different traders, I had thought, and this was additionally based mostly on my private constructive experiences with the plant itself I had thought that hashish could be this enormous long-term alternative.
These corporations have been rising at a triple digit fee throughout the pandemic. I believed, okay, I imply it feels so silly in hindsight, however I believed I could possibly be conservative and mannequin 20% to 30% progress for a few years following the pandemic.
And, these corporations are going to be very worthwhile and the shares look very low-cost at, what’s it, like 5x or 6x gross sales. However in actuality, we noticed that a variety of corporations throughout the pandemic, they noticed a variety of pull ahead in demand, even software program, like Zoom video, noticed demand improve exponentially. However then following the pandemic, progress disappeared.
Within the case of hashish, that positively occurred. I suppose it was very behavioral throughout the pandemic. Lots of people simply used hashish much more than traditional. After which after the pandemic lifted, they simply stopped utilizing it the identical means they did throughout the pandemic.
However not solely that, what we noticed was I had positively underestimated how the impression from the illicit market and simply the value margin trajectory. So, whereas I beforehand thought that this was a really sturdy progress story with prime quality enterprise fashions, in actuality, I am now of the view that enterprise mannequin high quality is fairly low.
This isn’t to do with any of the efforts from the administration groups. Numerous these administration groups execute strongly, however that is only a structural problem. It is simply because shoppers, opposite to what many would possibly say, they are usually very value delicate.
And so when you will have the illicit market working very cheaply, after which additionally you will have a variety of, a variety of different authorized rivals, costs maintain coming down, which suggests margins maintain coming down.
So, what we have now seen within the final couple of years with these MSOs is that any high line progress hasn’t actually led to constant margin growth.
In reality, margins, a variety of the occasions margins, and on this case, we’re even simply speaking about EBITDA margins. So EBITDA margins maintain happening even when the highest line goes up. And that could be a very uncomfortable place to be in as a result of progress would possibly ultimately flip destructive as extra rivals come on-line and costs maintain happening.
So it is positively been a 180 when it comes to viewing this to be a really, very sturdy progress story to, these are trying, I imply as the best way I believe one yr in the past, the best way I put it’s, that is, investing in hashish is like investing in cyclical shares with out the cyclical upside. You solely have publicity to the cyclical draw back due to value compression.
There is not actually a lot chance that costs immediately spike, proper? So, that is an issue right here is how do you worth names that solely have publicity to cyclical draw back?
RS: Do you suppose it principally is, I imply, I do know that you simply simply went by way of all the explanations, however do you suppose it is principally the truth that it was by no means legalized and so they by no means acquired to see that exponential progress realized? Do you suppose that that is an enormous a part of why all of these issues did not pan out the best way we thought it did? It could?
JL: So, I positively am not an apologist for these MSOs. I believe that a variety of it’s self-inflicted, and one thing to notice is anybody who has invested in these, over the past couple of years, I am certain many people keep in mind the New York progress story or reasonably the New Jersey story.
RS: We have been so harmless.
JL: Sure. Earlier than New Jersey got here on-line, all of those MSOs, they’d named it, going to be an enormous progress catalyst.
However in actuality, what occurred when it lastly opened and all these names, they have been really promoting out every little thing. So despite the fact that they have been promoting out every little thing in New Jersey, what we noticed was that margins nonetheless went down as a result of it is only a whack-a-mole.
So that you get New Jersey coming on-line, however your entire current mature markets go down. So when you will have a brand new market come on-line, that simply offsets your outdated markets.
So far as why did this not work out? It is a few causes. I believe the best means to take a look at it’s, you possibly can have a look at why Inexperienced Thumb (OTCQX:GTBIF) has executed fairly nicely comparatively to the remainder of the sector.
They are not excellent, however there’s a few issues stand out. Two very, very clear issues stand out right here at Inexperienced Thumb. One is, they’ve a higher deal with operational self-discipline. And it is not identical to the truth that they’re leaner, but it surely’s additionally simply they pay their executives lots lower than a variety of the opposite firms.
If we’re being frank, a variety of the chief compensation throughout hashish land may be very, very excessive. And so that may create some battle of curiosity. However the different key level right here as to why Inexperienced Thumb has executed so nicely and why they’re GAAP worthwhile is as a result of they simply have a lot much less debt than a variety of the opposite operators.
And keep in mind, with the debt, the issue right here is, due to 280E taxes, you can not deduct curiosity bills from taxable revenue. And a variety of these names, once they tackle debt, they’re taking over debt at like 12% rates of interest, however while you think about 280E-taxes, that rate of interest is extra like 14%, 15%, 16%. It is prohibitively costly.
However a variety of these names, and once more, for no matter cause, they might be rising quickly by not issuing inventory, however by issuing a ton of debt. So, if they’d issued inventory as a substitute, there would not be any curiosity expense. There isn’t any dividends or something, however they may problem a ton of debt. So, the larger they acquired, the extra debt they needed to service.
However a variety of these corporations, they have been rising, a variety of these Curaleafs (OTCPK:CURLF) and Trulieves, they grew larger and greater only for the sake of rising larger, simply to have the ability to say that they’ve like a coast-to-coast footprint or simply to have the ability to say that they’ve X variety of states of their portfolio, however in actuality, they could have been that the issues they have been shopping for perhaps weren’t worthwhile. So, the larger they grew, the much less worthwhile they acquired.
And this was actually, actually clear within the case of Trulieve. I believe a variety of Trulieve traders at this level positively want Trulieve by no means acquired Harvest and Trulieve simply stayed very Florida centric. And once more, I am not making an attempt to be a crystal ball right here. On the time when Trulieve purchased Harvest, I used to be positively one of many folks that was like, oh, that is sport altering.
However I believe that it must be the job of the administration groups to have the ability to know the right way to develop profitably. And I believe that is one thing that was lacking in hashish land.
So, I believe a variety of the struggles they’re going through proper now when it comes to having an excessive amount of debt, not having any constructive actual money stream to benefit from these low inventory costs as a result of traditionally, the principle option to benefit from these inventory costs is by repurchasing inventory, however a variety of these names, despite the fact that they’re so low-cost, as a result of they’ve a lot debt, it signifies that they don’t seem to be worthwhile on a GAAP foundation.
They haven’t any actual money to purchase again inventory. All your money must go towards paying down debt. And so, a variety of these points there, I imply, I hate to say it, however they’re very a lot self-inflicted.
RS: I might say two cups self-inflicted, one cup no assist and regulatory stress. Yeah, it is robust. It is robust, however many classes discovered. I imply, look, we began this dialog speaking concerning the bubble that occurred in tech.
And I believe there have been so many funding classes to be discovered from that, identical to there are such a lot of funding classes to be discovered from the hashish trade. And we’re nothing if not fallible throughout. So, actually lots to be discovered.
Julian, something we not noted of this dialog that you simply need to share with traders or allow them to know the right way to discover out extra about your profile on Looking for Alpha, extra about Finest Of Breed Development Shares. RIP, Hashish Development Investor. What else do you need to share with traders? Glad so that you can share that now.
JL: Extreme valuations have meant higher volatility within the occasion of market downturn, however extra importantly, simply not with the ability to recuperate. So usually you need to have the ability to maintain shares as they fall or higher but, purchase shares as they fall.
But when the valuations are simply not figuring out, that truly may find yourself being very, very dangerous recommendation. You find yourself simply throwing good cash after dangerous, and chances are you’ll not know why, the thesis continues to be going nicely, they’re nonetheless rising, however for some cause, the inventory costs by no means recuperate. And valuation is an enormous element there.
I suppose if any listeners need to get extra of my analysis, as you have famous, on Looking for Alpha, I host an investing group named Finest Of Breed Development Shares.
However yeah, I believe the principle message immediately is that whereas I’ve tended to be one of many extra bullish traders on Looking for Alpha, proper now I’m seeing many warning indicators of mainly a market that’s priced for perfection.
So even in case you are discovering names that also look compelling, be aware that the market total is crammed with a variety of bubbly pockets. So I count on there to be appreciable volatility forward.
Editor’s Word: This text discusses a number of securities that don’t commerce on a significant U.S. alternate. Please concentrate on the dangers related to these shares.
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