There are growing indicators of a thaw between yesterday’s terrorists/right now’s reputable authorities in Damascus and the US/Israel-backed Kurds of northeastern Syria. That signifies that Türkiye and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan are both being sidelined or are get together to the concept of a peace with the Kurds. Whereas the latter appears unlikely, there are causes that Türkiye might need no alternative however to agree.
We’ll get to these under, however first a fast replace on reviews of the combating between Turkish-aligned mercenaries and Kurdish forces. Greater than 100 fighters have been killed over the weekend in northern Syria largely in villages across the metropolis of Manbij. Turkish Minute with extra:
Turkish-backed factions in northern Syria resumed their struggle with the SDF on the identical time Islamist-led rebels have been launching an offensive on November 27 that overthrew Syrian president Bashar al-Assad simply 11 days later.
They succeeded in capturing the cities of Manbij and Tal Rifaat in northern Aleppo province from the SDF.
The SDF controls huge areas of Syria’s northeast and elements of Deir Ezzor province within the east the place the Kurds created an autonomous administration following the withdrawal of presidency forces in the course of the civil warfare that started in 2011.
Ankara considers the SDF an extension of the Kurdistan Staff Celebration (PKK), which has fought a decades-long insurgency in southeastern Türkiye and is designated as a terrorist group by the federal government.
Right here’s what it roughly interprets to on a map:
Is Erdogan Being Sidelined?
Now to the political maneuvering. Türkiye was extensively assumed to be urging the brand new Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham regime in Damascus to keep away from any dialogue with the Kurds. A gathering with Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa, additionally identified by his nom de guerre Abu Mohammad al-Julani, lately passed off nonetheless. From Asharq Al Awsat:
A consultant of the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC), the political wing of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), said that the latest assembly between the SDF management and the brand new Syrian administration in Damascus addressed solely navy points. Bassem Ishak, head of the SDC’s Washington workplace, described the discussions as optimistic, specializing in operational coordination and shared considerations.
Since opposition forces entered Aleppo late final 12 months, SDF leaders have maintained direct contact with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to guard Kurdish communities and different residents in areas like Tal Rifaat and the neighborhoods of Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafieh in Aleppo. Ishak emphasised that the coordination between the SDF and the “Operation Room to Deter Aggression” has been ongoing since December 8, protecting navy operations and area developments.
This assembly marked the primary between SDF leaders and Ahmed Al-Sharaa for the reason that ousting of Bashar Al-Assad. It comes amid continued clashes between Kurdish fighters and Turkish-backed factions in northern Syria, notably round Ain al-Arab (Kobani) and Tal Rifaat, areas now beneath Turkish management.
Washington is believed to have been the motive force of the assembly, which highlights the truth that if HTS needs to successfully run Syria, it wants income from the US/Kurdish occupied northeast. From Al-Monitor:
The HTS-led administration needs at the least 70% of all oil income, whereas the SDF needs half, he claimed. One other is the proposed integration of the SDF into the Syrian nationwide military. The HTS needs an entire dissolution of the SDF. This mirrors Ankara’s calls for. The SDF needs to retain its personal native constructions that may, in concept, be beneath Damascus’ central command.
HTS now seems to be to be taking a softer stance in direction of the Kurds than Ankara — at the least on the floor — would love:
Two methods to learn this. One is that it was organized behind Türkiye’s again and Erdogan and firm are fuming. The opposite is that it’s a part of a wider settlement taking form. Each is likely to be true.
Erdogan has roughly two choices, which we’ll discover in the remainder of this piece:
Proceed the struggle towards Kurds, doubtlessly utilizing extra of the Turkish navy. This might result in direct confrontation with Individuals on the battlefield and, extra importantly, a firestorm of financial penalties.
Work out some take care of the Individuals that whereas a blow to Ankara’s aim of whole victory towards Kurds may convey main financial advantages and assist with neo-Ottoman ambitions in any coming struggle with Iran.
And it won’t be all that a lot of a alternative both as his proxies in Syria discover new associates. From Al-Monitor:
Apparently, Syria’s new high diplomat, Asaad Al-Shaibani, made his first abroad go to to Saudi Arabia, not Türkiye, regardless that Türkiye’s high diplomat, Hakan Fidan, and its intelligence chief, Ibrahim Kalin, have been the primary high overseas officers to journey to Damascus after the autumn of the Assad regime. Al-Shaibani was accompanied by the minister of protection, Murhaf Abu Qasra, and spy chief Anas Khattab.
Muslim steered that Ankara would really feel slighted. Türkiye lacks the monetary means to assist rehabilitate war-ravaged Syria. HTS chief Ahmed al-Sharaa’s precedence is to consolidate energy, and he can do this solely by delivering to his impoverished nation. Therefore, Ankara might be unlikely to make a fuss presently.
Adam Clements, a former US diplomat and Pentagon official, instructed Al Jazeera:
“Saudi Arabia would have a big role as well … at the outset of construction and reconstruction. Syria is very dependent on Iran for oil and fuel, and so I think Gulf States could also support that as well.”
Lo and behold, on Monday the US issued a “sanctions pause” authorizing sure transactions with the Syrian authorities, together with some power gross sales and incidental transactions.
In a latest interview with Saudi-owned Al Arabiya tv, Syria’s al-Julani mentioned Riyadh “will certainly have a large role in Syria’s future”, pointing to “a big investment opportunity for all neighbouring countries.”
Ankara would in fact be unable to match investments from the Gulf, however it and particularly its building business may gain advantage drastically from all that oil and gasoline cash pouring in.
That makes this an inopportune time to tackle the American-backed Kurds in Syria. It makes it extra doubtless he’ll look to chop a deal (Türkiye may doubtless stay with an settlement that sees Kurdish-controlled areas stay a part of Syria) and save the struggle for one more day.
Sanctions Aid and Protection Trade Help
As we famous on the time, there have been indicators one thing was afoot with the US and Türkiye forward of the offensive that toppled Assad. Washington started speaking about reduction for Türkiye from the Countering America’s Adversaries Via Sanctions Act and its vassals in Europe abruptly ended a years-long unofficial embargo on promoting Türkiye protection business merchandise.
That development continues.
Not solely are Europeans exporting to Türkiye once more, they’re now shopping for Turkish protection merchandise.
In December Spain agreed to buy 24 Hurjet jet trainers produced by Turkish Aerospace Industries, and Portugal signed a deal for Türkiye’s state-owned Protection Applied sciences Engineering Company to construct two replenishment ships — the primary exports of manned Turkish jets and navy vessels to NATO allies. Additionally in December, Baykar, which is owned by the household of Erdogan’s son-in-law, Selcuk Bayraktar, acquired Italian aviation firm Piaggio Aerospace — one other signal of Türkiye’s rising protection presence in Europe.
These agreements will increase a Turkish protection business that has been steadily rising (on Friday Türkiye introduced that its protection business exports surpassed $7.1 billion final 12 months) regardless of restrictions within the West.
Türkiye is keen to not solely hold these offers however proceed its protection business export progress.
Sanctions and a return of any embargo on much-needed engines and energy programs for its home initiatives may derail that progress, which suggests Erdogan and firm doubtless have limits on how far they’ll push on the Kurds.
So we will see how peace with the Kurds may go hand in hand with Türkiye’s protection business targets, it may assist unlock some semblance of stability in Syria, which may usher in Gulf cash and due to this fact increase the Turkish building business in Syria. An bettering Syria state of affairs additionally signifies that the almost 4 million Syrian refugees in Türkiye may legitimately consider returning dwelling.
Erdogan is going through strain on the financial system and the refugees. Assuming he’s in a position to make progress on these fronts and set himself up for reelection, that’s another excuse he should take into account peace with the Kurds: he wants them in an effort to change the structure so he can run for one more time period within the subsequent presidential election scheduled for no later than Could 7, 2028.
Kurdish Peace Talks
Whereas the Türkiye-Kurdish struggle continues in Syria, there are indicators this may very well be an escalate-to-de escalate technique from Ankara.
Reviews started to emerge in October — across the identical time we started to see a thaw between Türkiye and the West on unofficial protection business embargoes — about Türkiye looking for some form of peace settlement with the PKK. The explanations have been two-fold:
to forestall Iran from reaching out to Kurdish fighters to destabilize Türkiye throughout a attainable escalation with US-Israel(-Türkiye?).
Erdogan wants the assist of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Celebration (DEM) in an effort to go a brand new structure that may permit him to run for one more time period.
These talks proceed. Within the last days of 2024, two members of parliament from DEM visited Abdullah Öcalan, the founding chief of the PKK and sole inmate at İmralı Jail on an island within the Sea of Marmara. Erdogan allies have hinted on the potential of parole for Ocalan in return for a disbanding of the PKK, phrases which the group rejects, however the truth that there are talks in any respect is a surprising flip of occasions. And it’s actually attention-grabbing that the assembly between HTS and the Syrian Kurds got here quickly after Ocalan met with DEM get together representatives.
That latter assembly may also sign weak point on Erdogan’s half. From Turkish Minute:
In his desperation to counter the formation of a Kurdish area and established order in Syria, Erdoğan has sought to convey Öcalan again into the general public discourse. By presenting himself as a pacesetter coping with Türkiye’s Kurds domestically, Erdoğan goals to deflect consideration from the truth of a Kurdish administration forming past Türkiye’s borders for the second time throughout his tenure.
On the finish of the day, if HTS is making good with the Syrian Kurds and receiving extra assist than Türkiye can supply from the likes of the US, Israel, and Gulf states, what possibility does Erdogan have? To ship within the Turkish navy, which might be problematic for most of the causes said above. The Individuals, except for nonchalantly saying that the US has roughly 1,100 extra troopers in Syria than beforehand talked about, are additionally (possibly) increasing their presence in northeastern Syria.
Individuals Again in Kobane?
Türkiye’s paramilitary forces are reportedly aiming for the cities of Kobane, also called Ain al-Arab, and al-Tabqa earlier than advancing in direction of Raqqa.That would put them in direct contact with American forces stationed in northeast Syria.
A couple of days into the brand new 12 months reviews started rising that the US is constructing a base on this northern Syrian metropolis on the Turkish border that’s the web site of combating between Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Turkish-backed forces. Washington denies the reviews. The US may very well be making an attempt to construct up a facility it used as a particular operations base previous to pulling out in 2019. After the U.S. departed, Russian forces took it over and remained there till exiting following Assad’s ouster.
Incoming President Trump was the one who ordered the US exit from the bottom in 2019, however regardless of his calls for a bigger withdrawal from Syria, the Pentagon ignored him.
The US in fact nonetheless maintains that it’s in Syria to struggle ISIS, which is concurrently utilized by the US-Israel and different instances used as a boogeyman to clarify occupation. The New Orleans attacker carrying an ISIS flag will little question complicate any future requires the US to reduce its purported struggle towards the group in Syria, as will the truth that Israel is reportedly already urging the incoming Trump staff to again the Kurds.
Extra grounded in actuality is Washington and Tel Aviv’s use of the Kurds as leverage over Türkiye. Additionally they concern that Iran may step in to offer assist to the Kurdish fighters within the face of Turkish onslaught. That’s the same concern shared by Ankara, which is cautious of Tehran reaching out to Kurdish fighters to destabilize Türkiye throughout a attainable escalation with Israel — a fairly clear signal that at the least in Tehran, Türkiye is rightly seen as a part of the US-Israel axis.
In conclusion, Erdogan is presently enjoying a weak hand.
And not using a full-on Turkish invasion, he doubtless can’t tackle Kurds supported by US and Israel with HTS forces more and more eyeing larger pay days than Türkiye can supply. And it more and more seems to be like Türkiye is getting progressively sidelined.
Then again, ought to Erdogan make peace with the Kurds, all these obstacles can grow to be advantages for Türkiye.
Gulf cash pours in, and that might assist the Turkish building business, which has at all times been an essential backer of Erdogan.
The US may again off on sanctions and unofficial embargoes on protection exports to Türkiye keep off the desk. Türkiye continues to ink main offers with NATO nations, and the Turkish construct up of its home navy business continues.
Oil continues to move to Israel from Azerbiajan by way of Türkiye.
And Türkiye may very well be an enormous winner (assuming its success) within the NATO-Israel push to additional isolate and destabilize Iran with a NATO Turan Hall which sees the West hyperlink up hypothetical shopper states throughout Iran’s north. The latest flip of Azerbaijani public opinion towards Russia over its alleged function within the downing of Azerbaijan Airways flight J2-8243 on Christmas Day additionally occurs to play into this technique.
We’ll see. Erdogan’s Türkiye is commonly filled with surprises.
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