Monty Rakusen
Expensive purchasers and fellow shareholders:
Few folks noticed this coming.
Two years in the past, most economists agreed {that a} U.S. recession appeared inevitable inside twelve months. But right here we’re, two years later, and the financial system has prevented contraction, inflation is subdued, revenue margins are resilient, and investor confidence is resurgent.
And following a 23% return in 2024, the S&P 500 has produced its finest two-year return since 1998 – a yr earlier than the bursting of the Web funding bubble.
Fairness valuations are undeniably elevated, with the S&P 500 presently buying and selling at roughly 22.5x ahead earnings. Whereas that is barely lower than the late Nineties tech bubble peak of 25x, it’s similar to the latest highs of 2021. Analysts making an attempt to justify right this moment’s valuations sound eerily just like these in 1999 who, in trying to justify stratospheric valuations, argued that quaint issues like earnings have been now not essential to the worth of a enterprise.
“The S&P 500 is a fundamentally higher-quality index today than it used to be. Companies have higher margins and less debt. And the companies now most heavily-weighted in the index are high-tech firms that can generate significant cash flow with less capital investment.”
This assertion might have simply been taken from the pages of a analysis report in both 2024 or 1999. And, simply as in 1999, it rings considerably hole right this moment. The “Magnificent Seven” tech giants (Magnificent Seven: Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Nvidia, and Tesla) accountable for a lot of the general market’s 2024 return should not assured to stay cash-generating powerhouses that require minimal funding. Subsequent yr alone, the historically capital-light Microsoft (MSFT) plans to take a position $80 billion in knowledge facilities to coach synthetic intelligence. Collectively, these seven corporations are actually reinvesting over 60% of their working money circulate into capital expenditures and R&D. This shift raises questions on whether or not they can preserve their repute because the capital-light money circulate machines they have been in years previous.
And simply as a handful of shares have been accountable for an outsized share of the index’s exceptional returns within the late Nineties (1999 S&P 500 giants: Microsoft, Normal Electrical, Cisco Programs, Intel, Nokia, Lucent, and AT&T), the affect of those seven shares on 2024’s excellent efficiency is clear within the divergence of the returns of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite (heavy Magnificent Seven weighting) and the Dow Jones Industrial Common and Russell 2000 (a lot decrease weighting.)
Greater than half of the S&P 500’s 23% return final yr got here from simply these seven shares.
Although our 27% fairness return final yr outpaced the S&P 500, it was not the results of elevated risk-taking or any change in our value-focused course of. (Your fairness return could differ as a result of legacy positions, liquidity wants/constraints, and rounding.) None of our greatest performing positions have been Magnificent Seven shares. None have been attractive Synthetic Clever corporations. As a substitute, our efficiency was pushed by a various array of companies together with homebuilding, dialysis, tobacco, mass media, and website hosting. Our high 10 performers additionally included a handful of financial-type corporations, and a Toronto-based holding firm typically described because the “Berkshire Hathaway of Canada.” (Our twelfth finest performing inventory in 2024 was the precise Berkshire Hathaway, which returned 27%.)
We additionally benefited from fortuitous timing, particularly with respect to a handful of late-year gross sales.
As now we have persistently famous, most market forecasts – even these from prestigious funding banks – are merely extrapolations of latest developments. (In truth, a defining function of financial forecasts normally is their incapability to foretell the long run with accuracy. This has been particularly obvious within the post-pandemic U.S. financial system, the place mannequin after mannequin, together with these employed by the Federal Reserve, has persistently confirmed ineffective.)
We do not make short-term predictions about inventory costs – for particular person corporations or the market as an entire – a degree acquainted to anybody who has requested us about market path. Whereas such predictions are inherently unreliable, that does not cease pundits from (unsuccessfully) trying. One yr in the past, the median Wall Road year-end 2024 goal for the S&P 500 was 5,000, with the best estimate at 5,400. The S&P completed the yr slightly below 6,000.
Somewhat than making an attempt to time the market, our focus is on remaining rational – and that’s particularly essential in intervals of heightened investor feelings. We’re within the math enterprise, not the prediction enterprise. And within the 4th quarter, a number of of our positions reached costs that met or exceeded the truthful worth of these companies.
(We use the phrase truthful worth typically to imply the current worth of the money flows a enterprise generates for its proprietor (shareholders), adjusted by the quantity of capital the enterprise wants to take a position to keep up its present stage of operations. In case you are a math nerd, tell us and we might be comfortable to stroll you thru examples of how we do that.)
After we liquidated and diminished the dimensions of a few of our positions in November, our money place elevated as a by-product of our inventory gross sales. We weren’t “raising cash” in November as a result of our crystal ball indicated a market decline in December. However we weren’t disillusioned that the two.6% month-to-month drop in S&P 500 occurred instantly after we liquidated 9% of our inventory portfolio.
CVS liquidation
We offered all our CVS shares in December at roughly $50 per share, reaching a modest (and disappointing) acquire over our multi-year holding interval. Whereas CVS has generated important money circulate lately – a determine that’s more likely to develop within the close to time period as a result of its Medicare Benefit enterprise – the intrinsic worth of the corporate, has not seen a considerable improve. Over the previous three years, the corporate has burned by greater than $18 billion of its free money circulate on the acquisitions of Signify and Oak Road Well being. (Burned by is a monetary euphemism for “wasted.”)
On the time, we believed these acquisitions have been considerably overpriced, and up to date developments help that view.
CVS is presently focusing on 3-5% of its long-term complete working earnings from Well being Care Supply, the enterprise unit that features the Signify and Oak Road Well being acquisitions. Roughly 60% of this phase’s income comes from these two acquisitions – and they’re anticipated to contribute solely a mid-single-digit share of working earnings over time (in comparison with an acquisition price that represents 20% of the corporate’s present enterprise worth). Unsurprisingly, when CVS lowered its steering in 2024, a part of the discount stemmed from the Well being Providers division, which homes Well being Care Supply.
Whereas CVS retains a strategic benefit by its distinctive, vertically built-in set of property – pharmacy, pharmacy profit administration (PBM), and managed care – the corporate’s latest enterprise efficiency has been underwhelming. It diminished earnings steering an astonishing 4 occasions in 2024, with free money circulate estimates falling considerably under historic norms.
The latest appointment of David Joyner as CEO – an encouraging transfer given his previous success in turnarounds – gives some hope for higher execution at CVS. Nevertheless, the present surroundings for healthcare corporations is way from favorable. Final month, a reform invoice was proposed that requires any managed care firm or PBM to divest its owned pharmacies inside three years of passage. Whereas we do not count on the invoice to move, we imagine the legislative uncertainty will proceed to weigh on the inventory, including to the already troublesome market situations CVS faces. Given these persistent headwinds and uncertainties, we determined it was time to exit our funding.
Goldman Sachs liquidation
One other of our latest gross sales was Goldman Sachs (GS), a place we liquidated at roughly $605 per share. Whereas now we have held positions in Goldman Sachs at varied occasions previously, the latest stake was established in 2019, when shares have been buying and selling under $200 per share. Over time, we have had a number of alternatives to build up shares at or under tangible ebook worth. Though tangible ebook worth is a crude metric, we typically discover Goldman Sachs extremely engaging at these ranges in relation to its normalized earnings energy. As we speak, tangible ebook worth stands at $312 per share. With the inventory not too long ago buying and selling above $600, it was priced at 1.9 occasions tangible ebook worth – a stage not often seen over the previous decade.
In contrast to our determination to promote CVS, which was influenced by operational points and capital allocation selections, the sale of Goldman was primarily a matter of valuation. Whereas the corporate stays a well-run enterprise (albeit with room to enhance), its inventory worth has elevated extra quickly than has the underlying worth of its enterprise.
Whereas Goldman’s main franchises are robust, they don’t seem to be essentially firing on all cylinders. The Asset Administration enterprise, as an example, has underperformed, shedding floor to Morgan Stanley and continues to ship properly under best-in-class returns on fairness. Though Goldman’s funding banking operations stay a market chief and are anticipated to thrive in a possible M&A resurgence, the latest inventory worth already displays important optimism concerning this restoration.
We proceed to watch Goldman Sachs and imagine the cyclical nature of the funding banking business could current future alternatives to re-purchase the inventory at extra favorable ranges.
KKR liquidation
We not too long ago offered our shares in international non-public fairness big KKR (KKR) at $153 per share. Our preliminary funding within the firm dates again to 2018, when the inventory was buying and selling round $20 per share. At the moment, KKR’s internet money and investments comprised roughly 65% of its market worth (over $13 per share). These investments had been compounding at a mid-teens charge and had greater than doubled in worth because the begin of the last decade. The remaining $7 per share of enterprise worth mirrored the fee-related earnings, which have been predominantly recurring, on condition that 73% of KKR’s property underneath administration (AUM) have been locked in for over eight years.
KKR is a primary instance of a profitable funding that, with the advantage of hindsight, was so clearly underpriced, that our revenue virtually looks like free cash.
Our preliminary buy worth in 2018 implied a valuation of lower than 5x earnings for this fee-based enterprise. Moreover, we noticed a free possibility on future carried curiosity – a lumpy but extremely priceless and rising residual. On the time, KKR had raised extra capital within the prior 12 months than in every other interval in its historical past. Conservatively valuing the bottom administration charges at 10x earnings, we estimated the corporate’s intrinsic worth at a per-share determine within the low $30s.
Over the previous six years, KKR’s enterprise has exceeded our expectations. The corporate’s transition from a partnership to a C-corp simplified tax reporting and enhanced monetary transparency, resolving prior possession complexities and serving to broaden its investor base. Total property underneath administration have grown at a high-teens annual charge, increasing from $170 billion to over $600 billion, with considerably higher technique diversification. Payment-related earnings have expanded in tandem.
The expansion has been supported by strategic initiatives such because the 2020 acquisition of World Atlantic, a frontrunner in life and retirement insurance coverage. For the reason that acquisition, insurance coverage AUM has greater than doubled. Moreover, KKR has considerably scaled its in-house capital markets enterprise, capturing price revenues from transactions inside its portfolio. In the latest quarter, capital markets price revenues reached a file $424 million.
In 2024, KKR’s inventory worth rallied 80%, bringing its market capitalization near $150 billion. Whereas the corporate continues to fireplace on all cylinders and expects to double its AUM once more over the following 4 years (to over $1 trillion), sustaining its historic progress tempo will possible show more and more difficult. Additional, the $14 billion in on-balance sheet investments now represents a a lot smaller share of the enterprise worth than at our buy, decreasing the margin of security these property as soon as offered.
Though a few of this letter might be interpreted as cautionary, this is identical sort of warning we train whether or not the inventory market has not too long ago elevated 25% or declined 25%. New purchasers could discover the parallels to 1999 unsettling, however our long-time purchasers will recall that we truly carried out fairly properly by the “bursting of the Internet bubble” in 2000-2002. Our constant deal with valuation steered us away from the speculative dot-com bubble, and continues to steer us clear of comparable excesses right this moment.
Though we do not predict market declines or corrections, we all know that they happen. And when the following one does happen, we are going to use it as a chance so as to add to our assortment of fine companies, both by deploying present money or by reallocating present holdings into much more engaging alternatives.
© 2025. Moon Capital Administration, LLC is a Registered Funding Adviser with the Securities & Trade Fee. SEC registration doesn’t represent an endorsement of the agency by the SEC nor does it point out that the adviser has attained a selected stage of talent or potential. SEC file quantity: 801-49240.
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Authentic Put up
Editor’s Be aware: The abstract bullets for this text have been chosen by Searching for Alpha editors.
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